(This article was written by Maria Maalouf and appeared in Arab News. Can anyone break Trump’s hold on the Republican Party?)

Eight candidates took part in the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Aug. 23, but Donald Trump was not among them. Nevertheless, the former president was able to shape the contest from offstage. The discussion also showed that the Republican candidates are still unable to convince voters why Trump should lose.

Trump is fit to contest the White House again against Joe Biden for many reasons. He is constantly campaigning, and has set the standards for the Republicans on how to challenge the Democrats on issues ranging from the economy to America’s relationship with China.

The debate was moderated by the Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Baier said: “If he’s not there, he’ll still be there. In other words, he’ll be a part of questioning. There may be soundbites, there may be elements where ‘this is what the leader of the primary says about this issue.’ He’ll be there, even if he’s not there.”

So far, no one in the Republican Party has overshadowed Trump since he ran for president in 2016. Jeb Bush, the son and the brother of two US presidents, lost badly to him in the primaries. Trump has had a strong hold on the party for seven years now, and will continue to exert this control, even after his indictments on 91 charges in four legal cases.

Trump has been able to capitalize on the weakness of the candidates, all eight of whom have performed poorly in national polls. They were under pressure to do well in this debate. This was a great opportunity for them to overcome their low national standing. Inevitably, people compared what Trump has said and what the other candidates were saying.

This helped Trump emerge as the “winner” of the debate. Many Republicans believe that his attacks on the Democratic Party are the strongest. Trump took advantage of the divisions among the eight candidates and was able to maintain his big lead over them in the polls after the debate ended. Moreover, the audience was filled with many Trump loyalists. These are the potential primary voters in Wisconsin. Several people outside and inside the auditorium expressed their support for the former president by displaying his name on campaign posters.

Furthermore, few of the questions dealt with his legal indictments. Except for Chris Christie and Isa Hutchinson, the Republican hopefuls agreed with Trump’s assertions that his indictments were political in nature.

There is a sentiment inside the Republican Party that Trump is an overwhelming figure in every type of political engagement the party organizes. Also, Trump’s absence raised expectations about his future appearance in upcoming debates. The question is: When will Trump participate in future Republican debates?

Trump also had a counter-strategy to the debate — a pre-taped interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that was published on X (formerly Twitter). Interestingly, people were hearing Trump’s answers as they were following up the first Republican debate. The interview drew 150 million “views.”

Despite Trump being a former president, he has succeeded in projecting the image of an outsider.

However, most importantly, no Republican candidate is able to challenge Trump. For one, the eight candidates have barely met the fund-raising and polling requirements to participate in the debate. No one knows whether these candidates will qualify to be invited to another debate or not. According to Politico magazine, “the mood in the GOP is also not primed for conventional politics, which many Republicans consider overly timid and not attuned to the urgency of the moment.”

Trump changed the GOP’s identity and future path, and made its members more eager to take on China, illegal immigrants, the Democrats, and not least the Republican establishment itself. Trump does not want to reckon with the past because this will make him more accountable for what he did to stop the transfer of power to Biden in January 2021. He always depicts himself as the party and the national leader for the future. This makes his appeal fascinating to many, and is why he looms large in every Republican event, including the Milwaukee debate. Many Republicans see him as a politician whose only motive is to save America.

The former president is making his 2024 presidential campaign part of his defense strategy. He has said that the Democrats will be engaged in “mass fraud” to change the elections the same way they did three years ago. If he finds evidence of any election mischief in the next election cycle, his legal team can try to prove his claims that the 2020 elections had much wrongdoing and his was a right claim. Since Trump always says he is innocent, many people believe him. This is the message the Republicans want to hear and not how other Republican politicians can clutch the GOP nomination.

Trump has made the Republicans impatient. He is sending a message to the party’s rank and file to act now to oust Biden from the White House. Trump is telling the Republicans that he is taking their party back to the glory of the Reagan years. He has given rival Republican presidential hopefuls little scope to change the agenda for the 2024 campaign. In spite of the accusations of corruption directed against him, Trump is saying it is American liberalism that is corrupting America.

No one appears able to break Trump’s hold over the Republican Party, millions of whom consider him a victim of the liberals and their hate for him.

Given this dynamic, there is no evidence that a second or third debate will significantly modify or reshape the Republican nomination process for the presidential race. Trump still has the lead and is driving the debate. He may well win in November 2024.

Maria Maalouf is a Senior Media Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

(This article was written by Maria Maalouf and appeared in Arab News. Syria becoming a key battleground in US-Russia rivalry)

A growing strategic consensus gaining influence inside Washington suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up the pressure on the US in Syria in a bid to force American troops out of the country. And some US military experts are blaming the Biden administration for being too timid to confront the Russians.

To realize his goals in Syria, Putin is escalating tensions with the US troops that have been deployed in the country since 2015. The Biden administration must clearly articulate its strategic goals in Syria. President Joe Biden must find ways to contact Putin and convey to him America’s anger regarding the Russian threats to the lives of Americans in Syria.

The EU can mediate between Russia and the US as far as their policies in Syria are concerned. This is the only way to stymie any combined Russian-Iranian-Syrian attempts to expel US forces from the country. Realistically, there is little cooperation or coordination between the US and Russia in fighting terror groups in Syria. Washington’s strategic dilemma stems from the simple political fact that, so far, Biden has failed to tell Putin to stop Russia’s provocative actions against US military personnel.

Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the US Institute of Peace’s Middle East and North Africa Center, believes that Putin’s frustrations over Ukraine are to blame. “We have seen, clearly since at least March of this year, a clear escalation of tensions, driven largely by Russian provocations of the US in Syria,” she said. “Those heightened tensions derive directly from the war in Ukraine, where I think the Russians are looking to stick a finger in the US eye, and provoke the US to the extent that they can in a place that is a bit removed from the Ukraine conflict arena itself.”

Those who criticize Biden for his failure to challenge Putin say the US leader has shown little strategic interest in Syria. According to Mary Beth Long, assistant secretary of defense during the George W. Bush administration: “What really happens is, you issue orders to your pilots and NATO folks, to basically be careful and do everything possible not to allow them to provoke you because they want an incident in order to have an excuse to escalate. So, what we really do, although we don’t admit it, is we put our airmen and our sailors at higher risk, because they basically have to absorb these things. It’s a safety issue; it’s an emotional issue. It’s tough on these guys.”

Between March and July, several near misses took place between US and Russian military aircraft in the skies over Syria. In June, Russian aircraft intentionally crossed the flight paths of US warplanes. Late last month, Russian fighters fired flares that damaged a US MQ-9 Reaper drone.

At present, the strategic balance between the US and Russia favors Moscow. The number of American troops in Syria is low, at about 900. Russia has at least 6,000 soldiers in the country. Armenia, a former Soviet republic, is helping the military effort. Russia controls vast areas of Syria, which it administers jointly with the government of Bashar Assad. The US operates from territory it captured from Daesh.

There are also six strategic problems that President Biden has to deliberate on with his top advisers in reference to the Russian-Iranian aggression versus American troops in Syria. First, what will Turkiye do regarding the increase in assaults on US forces in Syria? Biden must consult with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on these Russian-Iranian moves. Second, what role have the Kurdish militias been playing in this anti-American escalation in Syria? Third, is the Russian-Iranian campaign against American troops deployed in Syria the cause of the reduced efforts to defeat Daesh?

Fourth, will Putin allow for direct military skirmishes between Iranian and American forces in Syria? Putin can pressure Iran not to be engaged in such fighting. Fifth, how are Russia and Iran assisting the Assad regime economically in a broader campaign to bolster the government? Finally, how will the increasing Iranian-Russian influence in Syria — through their joint efforts to oust America — affect and impact Lebanon? Will such a military tactic enhance further the power of Hezbollah?

The possibility that the US and Russia will go to war over Syria is slim. Biden has few options. He is constrained by the strategic limitations imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, who withdrew most US troops from the country. America cannot arm many of the anti-Assad groups, as the Obama administration did. Whether Russia and Iran use Syria as a constant threat to American forces is a big political and military question and challenge that will be tested in the next few weeks. Syria can be a game-changer for the American-Russian global and regional competition going on at present.

Putin, meanwhile, can rely on support from Iran and its militias to challenge the US presence. It is also unknown whether future confrontations will be limited to the air or will evolve dangerously in other military arenas. US intelligence must also monitor the Wagner Group’s activities to guard against potential acts of sabotage or aggression against America and its allies.

Ultimately, it is Putin who will call the shots as he sets out to make it more difficult and burdensome for the US to be an active player on the Syrian scene. Another conclusion is that the situation in Syria is fluid. America can resist the encroachment against its forces in Syria. It is difficult to make predictions with any degree of confidence about the future of American, Russian and Iranian troops in Syria. Biden is vulnerable in Syria, as is Putin. Syria will determine the level of authority, competence and leadership of both Biden and Putin.

Maria Maalouf is a Senior Media Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.