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Roger Marshall (R-inc.) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
I. The Race
Roger Marshall (Republican) is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, having won his seat by a +11.4% margin in 2020 – shy of President Trump’s concurrent margin that year of +14.6%. Marshall, a physician, served in the U.S. House for two terms immediately prior to his Senate run.
Adam Hamilton (Democrat) is a woke Methodist megachurch pastor and author seeking to ride the “centrist” label to victory.
II. State Profile
Kansas hasn’t backed a Democrat for President since 1964, and hasn’t elected one to the U.S. Senate since sending George McGill to Washington, D.C., in 1932. It lies in the heart of Trump Country and has only one emerging political trouble spot – Johnson County. The shift in that county, which had been won by every GOP presidential nominee since 1920 until it flipped in 2020, cost the Republicans the KS-3 U.S. House seat in the 2018 suburban realignment (and in every election since). The population of agriculture-heavy western Kansas is heavily Latino, and trending toward the GOP.
Demographic Statistics
III. Market Assessment
Markets consider Marshall the clear favorite, but Hamilton has a notable support base looking for an upset.
IV. History
Kansas notably switches between Republican and Democrat in gubernatorial races, as shown by Democrat Laura Kelly occupying the mansion right now; however, the line stops there. Lyndon Johnson’s national landslide in 1964 marks the last time Kansas sided with Democrats for the presidency, but you’d have to go back 32 years in time from there, as mentioned above, to find the last time they went blue for the Senate.
No race for Marshall’s seat in the past three decades has been closer than +10.6% (2014). Jerry Moran occupies the other seat, once held by Bob Dole. It hasn’t had a race closer than 10.6% since 1974, the year of the Watergate scandal and Nixon resignation. The 2014 Senate race won by Pat Roberts (Marshall’s predecessor) ran 11.1% left of the Romney 2012 presidential margin. Moran’s 2022 reelection ran 8.4% right of Trump’s 2020 margin, suggesting serious strength for incumbents (albeit in a favorable midterm year).
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
No drama for Marshall:
Plenty of drama and coalition struggle ahead for Hamilton. 65.1% of the Democrat primary vote went to other candidates:
This clearly favors the incumbent, who doesn’t have to bandage up his party to defend the seat.
VI. Polls
RCP Average: Marshall +1.5%
Not much to pick from – but we do have a ludicrous Hamilton +2 in the data set with 13% “undecided.” The Hill/Emerson had Moran +12 in September 2022, 11 points short of his final margin. Marshall’s own average polling lead was +2 in 2020, nearly 10 points short of his final margin.
VII. Media Ratings
A couple of these bodies are buying polling and narratives, but Decision Desk and Inside Elections seem to know how Kansas votes in statewide federal races for the past century.
VIII. Party Registration
Up until last month, Republicans had made a net gain in voter registration since the 2024 election. The primary surge for Democrats driven out of Johnson County and metro Kansas City, plus the numerous college towns, shoved the raw margin and percentage margin left of the 2024 numbers. This is not an organic leftward shift that is likely to be sustained over time, as these were not reflected throughout the state.
These numbers do not suggest trouble for Marshall.
IX. Election Considerations
With no 2020 shortcuts present, Kansas makes it difficult for Democrats to cheat or pile up ridiculous margins in urban and suburban areas that overwhelm rural areas.
X. Summary and Election Estimate
These are the major factors for the U.S. Senate race in Kansas:
Kansas does not elect Democrats to the Senate. It hasn’t done so in 94 years, the year Herbert Hoover lost the presidency to FDR.
Trump won the state by over 16 points in 2024. Even giving up as much presidential margin as Pat Roberts did in 2014, Marshall would still win by over 5 points.
Hamilton has the task of uniting the party after a primary contested by ten candidates. With the GOP expected to recapture the governorship, his odds of convincing the ticket to split in a way it hasn’t for a century are overwhelmingly imposing.
As of the latest report, Marshall has Hamilton beat financially. This will close as phony polls boost Hamilton, but the GOP war chest won’t let this one sneak up on anyone.
Here is how the key factors in this race stack up:
Forecast for Kansas U.S. Senate
Hamilton has far too much to overcome not only in terms of present-day problems, but a century’s worth of electoral outcomes. Marshall runs for the first time as an incumbent with a united party, while Hamilton has to piece together a coalition that can win as the state appears poised to flip partisan control of its governorship.
Marshall should continue to trend as the favorite and win this race comfortably.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
