I’m Back From Bosnia – Trip Report

Spent a few days this week in Bosnia-Herzegovina…specifically at a Defense Summit in the Republic of Srpska. It was a good opportunity to reflect on the Bosnian Civil War, of course, but also some of the realities of NATO and some of the realities of air power….especially so, as they help explain why the current Iran situation is dragging on for no good military reason.

First, a little Cold War history…during the dissolution of the communist state of Yugoslavia in 1992, a constituent part, Bosnia-Herzegovina, proclaimed independence on 6Mar92, which was recognized by the European Community on 6April and the USA on 7April. The problem….Bosnia had a sizable ethnic Serbian population in and around Banja Luka who rejected a future wherein they would be part of an independent Bosnia-Herzegovina where the combined populations of Catholics (17%) and Muslims (44%) would outnumber ethnic Serbs (32.5%). The result…civil war, the introduction of Serbian forces under Slobadan Milosovic, and massive ethnic cleansing at intensities not seen since the Nazi death camps. NATO established a no-fly zone over the area of hostilities, Operation Deny Flight, (which had no compelling effect on the ground) but it did result in the first air-to-air kill in NATO’s history. Five Serbian J21 fighters violated the no-fly-zone to attack targets on the ground and were shot down by two pairs of US F16s. Three years later, peace negotiations in Dayton ended the fighting leaving a Serbian dominated Republic of Srpska confederated with a Croat/Bosniak dominated Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Operation Allied Force followed in 1999 in response to continued ethnic cleansing in Kosovo by Serbian forces under Slobadan Milosovic. Allied Force lasted 78 days and involved 1055 NATO aircraft (700+ of them were US aircraft). Despite the overwhelming size of NATO air power, air power (again) produced no compelling military reality for Serbian forces on the ground. Although General Wesley Clarke credits air power for ending the war in Kosovo, the truth is Serb forces ceased combat operations only when on 3Jun99 Moscow withdrew its diplomatic support for Serbia and sided with NATO to present terms of surrender to Serbia. The result…Serbia was diplomatically isolated and ceased combat 7 days later on 11Jun99.

A few thoughts from this history and my trip.

First, as supremely important as humanitarian reasons are, we cannot allow them to masquerade as a vital national interest. I hate to say that, but as humans, our capacity for compassion is infinite, but our resources are not. There will always be humanitarian reasons for going to war…but we will run out of American blood and treasure. This is why rational nations only go to war to defend, secure, promote or seize vital national interests….yes, like ensuring a permanently non-nuclear Iran.

Second, defense alliances, like NATO, are not charity cases. Not everyone who wants to be included in the alliance is necessarily worth admitting to the alliance. Why? Because worthy membership must be limited to only those who have the will and capability to throw a punch. The alliance goes both ways. If a nation is admitted, and they have no impressive military capabilities, then membership for them imposes only costs on the alliance, not added capability. In reality, they are nothing more than a tripwire.

Third, we Americans are mystified why most of our NATO partners refuse to join us in combat with Iran (even though we joined them and did the bulk of the heavy lifting in Bosnia, where we had no vital national interest at stake). I am mystified, too, especially given that most of our NATO partners produce no oil and consequently HAVE a vital national interest in the oil that flows thru the Straits of Hormuz. Consequently, they are either irrational, or incapable of throwing a punch, or cowardly, or (dare I say it) wittingly aiding the enemy.

But here’s the thing….the frustrating thing. We still need NATO. NATO needs NATO. But we all need NATO members who are willing and able to kick ass. I made this point at the Defense Summit, and paraphrased the late General George Marshall, architect of the Marshall Plan….”We should not fight unless we must. We must not fight alone, and that’s because we must not fight for long.” President Trump is absolutely right to pressure our NATO allies to start pulling their weight. We need to keep that up. I’m happy to say that not a single European attendee at the Summit disagreed with me. Nevertheless, the proof will be in the pudding.

My guest on the Frontlines Report this week is a veteran of the battlefields of Lebanon. He is Dr Gaby Hawat, an old friend of mine, who survived combat and the horrors of civil war and later built great success and a wonderful family in the USA. He and I discussed Lebanon and Iran. He frequently goes back and forth to Lebanon and knows the region like few others. Click on the link to hear the discussion: https://frontlinesoffreedom.com/show-962/