By: Eli M. Gold, President
Nearly three years ago, in July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and began ruling by presidential decree in what many observers called a "self-coup." Since then, President Saied has consolidated power, rewritten the constitution to grant himself vast new authority, and delayed elections with no clear timeline for restoring democratic rule. This concerning authoritarian backslide in Tunisia, the lone success story to emerge from the Arab Spring, threatens the hard-won gains of Tunisia's 2011 Jasmine Revolution.
Critically, President Saied has until July 25, 2024 to schedule the next presidential election, the constitutional deadline. It is imperative that he upholds the rule of law and respects the international order that expects Tunisia to hold this election by this legally mandated date. Tunisians have had two fair and transparent presidential elections in the past decade - this upcoming vote will be the third and must proceed as required.
President Saied claims his power grab was necessary to root out corruption and solve Tunisia's many challenges. In reality, his increasingly oppressive rule has only exacerbated the country's problems. The economy is on the brink of collapse with soaring inflation and unemployment. Foreign currency reserves are critically low, and the government is seeking an urgent IMF bailout. Meanwhile, crackdowns on political opponents, anti-corruption activists, journalists, judges, and business leaders have stifled dissent and spooked investors. Far from resolving Tunisia's crises, President Saied's authoritarianism only worsens them.
Even more alarming are President Saied's recent moves toward communist ideology and alliances with China, Russia, and Iran. He has officially sided with China on Taiwan, lifted visa requirements for Iranians, and visited Iran to strengthen ties. By cozying up to these authoritarian regimes, President Saied is not only threatening Tunisia's relationships with Western partners but also risking disruption on NATO's southern flank. His actions could allow Tunisia to be weaponized against the West and undermine the region's delicate agenda of peace and security.
This is a far cry from the Saied that Tunisians thought they were electing. While he came to power transparently through the ballot box, he has since pulled a "bait and switch" by morphing from a regular guy into a communist hardliner. His erratic behavior raises risks of expropriating international assets, unhooking Tunisia from its commitments to the rule of law and international norms, and setting the country on a collision course with the West and its own democratic principles.
Saied's authoritarian pivot is a betrayal of the 2011 Jasmine Revolution that ended 23 years of dictatorship and ushered in a new era of democracy and hope. Tunisians fought hard for the right to choose their president freely, criticize their government without fear, and build an open society. While imperfect, its progressive constitution enshrined democratic freedoms and gave Tunisians a real voice in their country's future for the first time.
Now, all that progress hangs in the balance. The 2022 constitution rammed through by President Saied guts checks and balances, erodes judicial independence, and makes him virtually impossible to remove from office. By ruling unilaterally and delaying elections, he deprives Tunisians of their fundamental right to choose their leaders democratically.
To salvage Tunisia's democracy, President Saied must reverse course immediately. He must urgently schedule the presidential election by the constitutional deadline of July 25, 2024. He should lift the state of emergency, restore judicial independence, free political prisoners, and allow civil society, activists, and opposition parties to operate without persecution.
Some may argue that democracy is too risky if it could result in a worse leader than President Saied. But this fear is misplaced. Tunisians have consistently rejected radicalism before and will do so again. The low turnout in Saied's constitutional referendum, his plummeting approval ratings, and public dissatisfaction all show he lacks a true mandate. As an incumbent, he is in the minority and would struggle to win a free and fair election.
Tunisia's vibrant political scene also offers hope, with several major parties led by trailblazing women. A democratic transition could elevate Tunisia's first female president - an inspiring milestone for women's leadership in the region. This potential for groundbreaking progress is yet another reason the presidential election must proceed as constitutionally required.
Only by relinquishing his exceptional powers and returning Tunisia to democratic rule can President Saied put the country back on track. Continued dictatorship will only exacerbate Tunisia's challenges and make them harder to resolve. The only path forward is letting the Tunisian people freely choose their president again.
For the sake of democracy, the rule of law, and Tunisia's future, President Saied must adhere to the election deadline of July 25, 2024. He should step back from his authoritarian overreach, recommit to Tunisia's pro-Western orientation, and uphold the democratic principles at the heart of the Arab Spring's most promising success story. Backsliding is not an option. The world is watching, and Tunisia's courageous fight for freedom is too precious to abandon now when it matters most. President Saied must do the right thing and give Tunisians back their hard-won right to choose their own destiny.
Eli M. Gold is the President of the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington, DC-based think tank focusing on foreign policy and defense matters. To learn more about the Gold Institute, visit www.Goldiis.org.
