Peter Huessy details China’s growing non-strategic nuclear arsenal and dual-use delivery systems

Chinese DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile on parade

Senior Fellow Peter Huessy joined The John Batchelor Show to discuss China’s nuclear buildup.

On The John Batchelor Show, Peter Huessy details the growth of China’s theater-range and dual-use delivery systems, Beijing’s belief that it can control escalation to keep the United States out of the Western Pacific, and the gaps this opens in U.S. and allied posture in Asia.

Peter Huessy is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C. based foreign policy and defense think tank.

Listen on The John Batchelor Show

Why Belgium Is Smarter Than the Netherlands on Asylum Reception

Bart De Wever and Belgian asylum policy

(This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in Wynia’s Week. Waarom België met de asielopvang slimmer is dan Nederland)

As the Netherlands bureaucratizes at a brisk pace, the Jetten cabinet loses itself in grand visions. The Hague invariably wants to be Europe’s “frontrunner,” but in fact it is lagging behind. At a high price. Energy and climate policy, now stripped of the frightening UN doomsday scenario, has been ideologically gutted. Asylum policy, the mother of all virtue-signaling, is meeting resistance from the public. In the end, in desperation, the question arises: why do the Belgians do it better?

To the bewilderment of The Hague’s politicians, “the Belgians” have managed to substantially reduce the influx of asylum seekers. The Netherlands has not. Why? In politics and governance the same law applies as in nature: a fish rots from the head down. Bad governance produces bad results. Leading politicians who do not know their classics make citizens suffer. With all its “experts and specialists,” The Hague claims to be entirely in the right yet steers blindly toward a concrete wall. Migration is (and has been for decades) the prime example.

In both the Netherlands and Belgium, the prime ministers bear the political responsibility: in the Netherlands, Rob Jetten; in Belgium, Bart De Wever. Both have been in politics for a considerable time. Jetten was a parliamentary staffer for former D66 leader Alexander Pechtold, and De Wever grew into the figurehead of the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA). In 2013 he became mayor of Antwerp and in 2025 prime minister of federal Belgium, thus including his French-speaking compatriots.

De Wever popular, Jetten not

According to the polls, Jetten is currently the most unpopular prime minister in the Netherlands; De Wever the most popular prime minister in Belgium. Even among French-speaking voters who had always been told he was an extreme Flemish nationalist. In a previous generation, the Netherlands had Ruud Lubbers and Wim Kok as prime ministers, and Belgium had Wilfried Martens and Jean-Luc Dehaene; prime ministers of the same type and caliber.

That balance is now lopsided. De Wever earned authority by, for example, preventing Belgium from bearing all the disadvantages of an EU plan: the unfreezing of Russian assets (180 billion) held at Euroclear in Brussels. The latter could have exposed Belgium to an enormous claim for damages on account of confiscation. De Wever prevented that, from a position of isolation, with a shrewd strategy, finding allies and convincing Germany. De Wever knows his classics and speaks several languages. He grew into the “bravest of all Belgians,” in the tradition of the Celtic forefather Ambiorix. And that for a “Flemish nationalist.” De Wever counts in Europe.

And what about Prime Minister Jetten? One hundred days is too short for an overly harsh judgment, but what stands out above all is a lack of insight. It was clear insight that brought De Wever success. Jetten travels the world. Judging by the many selfies, he seems very much in love with himself. He comes across as a “child prime minister,” while the Netherlands rises up against the Distribution Act, which spreads both asylum seekers and the citizens’ protest across the country. The discontent grows, while Jetten assumes the stature of a holiday photographer. Ergo: his standing (and that of his office) is in the nosedive of a falling star. Since he is prime minister of a minority cabinet, the danger is never far away.

Jetten operates as a tightrope walker, while De Wever is the architect of his center-right alliance N-VA, with enough electoral strength to dominate the political landscape in Flanders and Belgium. With just under 25 percent in Flanders, N-VA is indispensable for coalition-building in both Flanders and Belgium, and it is De Wever who sets the course. The result was a turnaround, while the Netherlands is politically fragmented.

Farcical

Belgium, especially in the 1980s, witnessed farcical scenes with drunken prominent Walloon socialists who spouted gibberish during the sessions of the Chamber of Representatives. One example I once saw myself was the Walloon socialist Michel Daerden, federal minister of transport (!), who addressed parliament dead drunk. That era is over, although the new generation is hardly teetotal.

The difference between De Wever and Jetten is the quality of “insight.” Prime ministers without insight manufacture “policy” without prospect. The Distribution Act is a good example. It solves nothing but spreads the asylum problem around. Many asylum seekers throw away their passports, but not their phones. Photos of asylum reception in Van der Valk hotels and on cruise ships travel around the world: the Netherlands is becoming a popular asylum destination.

Belgium prevents this through frugal reception. Even the Flemish socialists, with whom De Wever governs, support minimal reception. Frank Vandenbroucke (70), Belgium’s deputy prime minister, a Flemish socialist in the De Wever government, knows the consequences of excessive immigration. And not because he is a Flemish socialist with Calvinist traits.

Flemish socialists were once powerful, but lost voters on the right to the Vlaams Belang and on the left to the radical-socialist Workers’ Party (PVDA). A cruise ship for asylum seekers will not appear in Antwerp anytime soon. That is why they move on, to “Hotel Holland.” Logical; I would do the same. The fault lies not in Brussels, but in The Hague. De Wever sees what Jetten fails to see.

Resistance in the capillaries of politics

In Belgium there would be no support whatsoever for a Dutch-style asylum policy, because the resistance begins right in the capillaries of politics. In Flanders, “identity” is experienced more consciously because people had to fight for it, whereas in the Netherlands it is taken for granted. The Fleming sees excessive immigration with large cultural differences as a threat to his own identity.

The electoral system in Belgium is closer to the citizens than in the Netherlands, which is governed centrally from The Hague. As soon as a Flemish citizen is troubled by asylum seekers, he or she goes to complain to the elected officials, such as the mayor, and to members of the Flemish or federal parliament. They are elected in their constituencies, where preference votes are very important. Every Flemish politician with many preference votes will trumpet that around, and then demands a high position in the party and afterward in parliament. The party’s “strongmen” become ministers in the federal or regional government. And the “strongest of all” becomes prime minister of Belgium. Whoever wants to rise high in Belgian politics must not go against the voters’ wishes.

In the Netherlands it is exactly the other way around. There is one national list of candidates for, say, the House of Representatives. The candidate is placed on the list thanks to the party leadership, with preference votes not being essential. A nice bonus, but not decisive for a political career. The list leader has to do the work and, above all, come across well on television. That was the case with Prime Minister Jetten, and he ran an effective campaign. Contact with the population is minimal and often stage-managed. What is alive “among the people” is no guideline. The Distribution Act proves it. In this way a disconnect arises between what The Hague wants (the phrase: “it must”) and the lived reality of ordinary citizens.

In Belgium, ministers nowadays generally enter the government with a “record”; a track record. These are the “strongmen” from the various parties. A blunder such as that of the current Dutch Minister of Housing, Elanor Boekholt-O’Sullivan (50, D66), would not easily occur in Belgium. She was appointed by former Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) to the rank of air force general, albeit without a pilot’s license, and is heading for failure in The Hague. That appointment has more to do with favoritism toward friends than with good governance.

The asylum problems the Netherlands is now grappling with are problems of its own making, just as was the case with energy and climate policy, with high costs that citizens get dumped on their plate via higher taxes. Belgian politicians generally stand closer to the voters and know where the ultimate limit lies. The Hague feels nothing, and goes off the rails undisturbed.

Derk Jan Eppink is a Distinguished Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

The Blame America First Syndrome

U.S. Air Force

(This article was written by Peter Huessy and appeared in RealClearDefense. The Blame America First Syndrome)

When Ambassador Jean Kirkpatrick explained in 1984 that America’s severest foreign policy critics “always blame America first” she identified a narrative that continues some four decades later. There was and continues to be a reflexive anti-American bias in much of the criticism of President Reagan’s security policy. This enables critics to avoid serious reflection as to the seriousness of security threats to the U.S.. If our security threats were much of our own doing, then the totalitarian threats from Russia and China could be dismissed. Simply change U.S. administrations and magically our adversaries turn into the friends they always were! Correct U.S. policy and threats conveniently disappear.

However, Kirkpatrick knew such a narrative was wrong and dangerous. With the dawn of the Reagan Presidency the United States faced major threats, all of which had grown significantly in the previous decade.

First was a reckless Soviet Union, often partnered with Communist China, engaging in major across-the-board arming of guerilla wars aimed at regime change. Although the Soviet expansion campaign centered in eastern Europe immediately following World War II, the Soviets followed with the North Korean cross border invasion of 1950. But its failure led to a switch to guerilla war, particularly in Indochina from 1959, Central America from 1958, and ironically culminating in the return to cross border invasion with Afghanistan in 1979.

Under Soviet direction, centers of state sponsorship of terrorism grew in Syria, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Iran, along with terror agents such as the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Hezbollah, the FMLN, FARC, and the Red Brigades and Bidar Meinhoff gangs. Ironically, during the supposed decade of détente, nearly two dozen American allied governments fell to or were systematically attacked by communist subversion.

After the 1980 election, the U.S. turned the tables. The U.S. rejected détente and sought rollback. The U.S. went after Soviet terror states in Afghanistan, Grenada and Nicaragua and worked to defeat terror proxies in Columbia and El Salvador. All part of an economic war on Moscow that aimed to make the cost of the Soviet empire unsustainable. And for the first time since 1917, the free world took back territory from the communist empire with the liberation of Grenada in 1983.

The second major threat President Reagan faced was a massive Soviet theater nuclear buildup, including the deployment of thousands of nuclear armed SS 20 medium range ballistic missile in Europe and Asia, targeting both the Atlantic and Pacific allies of the United States.

The third major threat president Reagan faced was a parallel Soviet nuclear buildup of deployed strategic nuclear weapons from a few thousand in 1972 to over 10,000 by the 1980s, all under the SALT treaties of 1972 and 1979. Treaties that gave the good arms control housekeeping seal of approval to Moscow’s buildup that had as its key purpose to coercively blackmail the United States and our allies to stand down in the face of Soviet aggression. Nuclear weapons were the umbrella under which Russian third world aggression would remain in a sanctuary.

Here is where we come back to Ambassador Kirkpatrick’s 1984 remarks. How did the United States reverse the Soviet buildup of nuclear weapons and end the Soviet empire? Kirkpatrick explained that too many critics of U.S. policy blamed the United States for Soviet aggression and nuclear building. The argument was because the U.S. supported dictators in Nicaragua, Vietnam, and Cuba, why was it a surprise guerilla campaigns emerged to change such governments? Similarly argued critics, NATO was created on the doorsteps of the USSR so why should we be surprised Moscow responded with the deployment of SS-20 missiles aimed at European NATO??

Even when the USSR empire came crashing down, there were three common explanations that gave credit not to Reagan but even to the Soviets themselves, Reagan’s domestic critics or some cosmic inevitability.

A common explanation was that the Kennan policy of restrained “containment” practiced by nine successive American Presidents helped bring down the Soviets, but nothing special from the Reagan White House. The idea of containment of Soviet aggression was originated by State department official George Kennan who coined the term in a long telegram from Moscow and in a subsequent essay in Foreign Affairs signed by “X.” But Kennan himself disliked the term containment and often declared it did not describe what Kennan had advocated after the end of World War II. He opposed Truman sending American troops to defend Korea, and repeatedly opposed Reagan’s security agenda, most particularly the administration’s nuclear and missile defense modernization agenda.

The second and often parallel narrative was that the collapse of the Soviet empire was inevitable, and again nothing special from President Reagan had any serious effect on the outcome. Containment may have worked but that was coincidental. Again, the common narrative was that nothing America did had much to do with the outcome of the Cold War.

The third narrative flowed from the first two. It was not America but the Soviets themselves that ended the Cold War. It was the reforms of General Secretary Gorbachev that ended the Cold War as the General Secretary anticipated the inevitable collapse of the Soviet Empire. All Reagan did was as one recent retired U.S. President claimed was to allow those reforms to take place without trying to extend the Cold War.

When a dozen and half nations slip behind the Iron Curtain in little more than a decade, it hardly makes sense to then pretend at the end of the subsequent decade the USA and its ally’s abject failure to “contain” the Soviets, meant that containment itself “worked.” And simultaneously led to the end and not the expansion of the Soviet Union!

As Ambassador Kirkpatrick explained, the blame America firsters complained the Soviet Union would have collapsed even faster if the United Stats had not been so aggressive. Reagan‘s political opponents held that his tough foreign policy made things worse, particularly with respect to describing the USSR as an “evil empire,” developing SDI and deploying MX missiles, arming the Contras and Mujahadeen Northern Alliance while saving Solidarity. To the blame American firsters, our adversaries had to take defensive actions to protect their own security. It was America that was at fault—having both caused the outbreak of the Cold War and perpetuated its continuance.

This acute tendency to, as the Ambassador explained, always blame America was key to understanding the alternative strategy often being pushed by the progressive left. If the United States and it’s supposed aggressive security policy was responsible for triggering bad Soviet behavior, then of course the removal of such U.S. security policy and its architect (Reagan) would magically change Moscow security policy to one far more benign. In short, detente would work. The pillars of former Vice President Mondale’s 1984 campaign were to stop SDI, freeze the deployment of America’s Pershing and GLCM missiles in Europe, kill the MX missile and other U strategic nuclear initiaitives, and end all military aid to the contras in Nicaragua and the government of El Salvador.

Here the ironies are too delicious to ignore. A frequent object of leftist or progressive scorn during the decade of the 1970s was Henry Kissinger. But Kissinger was the architect of the SALT agreement that allowed a huge Soviet nuclear build-up, the ABM treaty that eliminated missile defenses, the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, and the entire edifice of the strategy of detente. For the left, what was there not to like?

But as Kirkpatrick pointed out, for the progressive left, if the origin of Soviet behavior was intrinsic to the very nature of Russian paranoia, a restrained American security policy would be an invitation to the expansion of Soviet aggression, which is precisely what occurred during détente.

It is true that in 1980 after the invasion of Afghanistan the Carter administration announced that it had misinterpreted the Soviet embrace of détente and been mistaken in declaring the U.S. had to get rid of its inordinate fear of communism. And if simply changing U.S. foreign policy back to détente and restraint would induce a benign Soviet subsequent conciliatory security policy, then of course, progressive critics of President Reagan could justify their opposition to peace through strength, SDI, the full up modernization of American nuclear forces, the arming of the resistance in Nicaragua and Afghanistan, the take down of Grenada, and the arming of our nation state allies in El Salvador, the Republic of Korea and NATO.

Similarly if today the turmoil in the Middle East was caused by America’s ally Israel, as is being claimed by much of the progressive left, just as they claimed an aggressive USA policy caused the Cold War, then it’s simply a matter of stopping Israel. And preventing Israel from securing arms necessary to continue its apparent too aggressive security policy would be a good place to start. Stop Israel, stop the war. Peace blossoms!

Senator Sanders (I-Vt) thus can blame Israel for “genocide” in Gaza and pretend Hamas and Hezbollah are on the side of the angels. And consequently, offer an amendment in the Senate to stop all USA arms sales to Israel, that received 40 votes, 39 of which were from the 45-member democratic caucus.

How simple Middle East security policy could be if we all just “blamed Israel first” for “tricking” the United States into war against Iran. Like the Cold War and the Soviet empire, ending the Iranian nuclear program, stopping the deployment of its long-range missiles, keeping open Hormuz, and ending proxy terrorism can be simply a matter of changing U.S. administrations. We can all be for “peace,” need not take up arms against the genocidal regime in Tehran, because as critics claim, it is Israel and the USA that “chose this war” not an Iran that for nearly half a century has been at war with Western civilization.

Peter Huessy is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

SITREP: Iran Fires on Israel (AGAIN!)

A bright missile trail arcs through a starry night sky

Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward northern Israel tonight, marking the first direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory since the April 8 ceasefire that ended the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched the strikes under the codename “Operation True Promise 5,” triggering widespread air-raid sirens across northern and central Israel. Israeli air defenses intercepted at least four Iranian missile barrages, and the IDF confirmed all missiles were intercepted.

No confirmed casualties as of this writing but do not be deceived by that outcome.

The intent was not ambiguous.

Iran fires ballistic missiles at a sovereign nation and calls it a warning.

Iran threatens American and Israeli targets across the entire region and frames it as a proportional response.

This is the regime that the world is being asked to negotiate with in good faith.

@realDonaldTrump urged both sides to avoid further escalation and told Iran to return to talks, saying the missile launches were “certainly not going to help negotiations” and calling on Tehran to “get back to the table and make a deal.”

I respect the President’s instinct to pursue a resolution. But the American people deserve honesty about what they are watching.

Initial U.S. / Iran talks in Pakistan in April already failed to reach a peace deal.

President Trump then announced an open-ended extension of the ceasefire and a continuation of a U.S. blockade until negotiations concluded “one way or the other.”

The regime in Tehran spent that entire period reconstituting, probing, and waiting for an opening. Tonight was that opening.

A ceasefire is not a peace agreement. I have said this publicly for months. Ceasefires buy time. The question is always who uses that time more effectively.

Iran used it to reload and to watch. The moment conditions allowed, they launched. That is not a failure of diplomacy. That is the Iranian regime behaving precisely as the Iranian regime always behaves.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a statement today warning that “should these acts of aggression be repeated, the responses will be broader in scope and will encompass all American and Zionist targets throughout the region.”

The men running Tehran do not want a deal that constrains them. They want a deal that protects them long enough to outlast American political will.

The ceasefire left unresolved the core issues: Iran’s ballistic missile program, Hezbollah’s arsenal, and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. None of those issues resolved themselves during the pause. They were simply waiting in the background, exactly where the Iranian regime needed them to be.

This is fifth-generation warfare operating simultaneously on the kinetic, diplomatic, and information fronts. Iran fires missiles, claims victimacy in the international press, threatens American bases, and positions itself as the aggrieved party in negotiations.

Eyes open, America. The Strait of Hormuz, the proxy networks, the ballistic missile inventory, and the unresolved nuclear program do not disappear because diplomats are talking in a conference room. The threat does not pause because we want it to.

Pray for the men and women in the region serving under our flag tonight 🙏🏼🇺🇸

Iran – U.S. House Voted to Restrict Presidential War Powers

Protesters holding "No War on Iran" and "No War" signs near the White House, with the Washington Monument behind

This article was written by Ernie Audino and appeared in Frontlines of Freedom. IRAN – U.S. HOUSE VOTED TO RESTRICT PRESIDENTIAL WAR POWERS.

The vote this week was 215-208 to impose limitations pursuant to the War Powers Act of 1973 upon President Trump’s conduct of hostile action against Iran. Two problems:

First – there isn’t a snowball’s chance in Hell that this vote will make it thru the Senate….and if by some miracle it does, President Trump will NEVER sign it into law. That means Congress will have to vote to override Trump’s veto, which will require 2/3rds vote of BOTH chambers. Never happen. So, this entire activity was a charade.

Second – and this is the Big One…the War Powers Act itself is plainly unconstitutional. The only reason it has survived on the books this long is because no president so far has bothered to take it to the Supreme Court to be put out of its misery. That said, if any president might be inclined to challenge it, it’s this one, Donald Trump. And here’s why it’s unconstitutional – no co-equal branch of government can limit the constitutional authorities of another co-equal branch of government. Period.

But first, let’s look at the Constitution to see who has which powers.

As everyone knows, Art II, Section 2 delegates authority to the President to be the Commander in Chief of the military. Consequently, there is NO higher authority in the military chain of command. No one above him, and no one outside of that chain of command, can direct or manage the operation of US troops in combat. No one. That includes introducing troops to a fight, telling them how to fight, and telling them when to stop fighting.

On the other hand, Art I, Section 8 delegates authority to Congress to declare war, to raise, support, provide and maintain the military, and to provide for calling forth the militia. So, Congress is constitutionally empowered to build the military, so to speak, while the President is constitutionally empowered to employ the military. (We’ll get to “declare war” in a minute.)

But how does the War Powers Act operate?

First, it “requires” the president to report to Congress within 48 hours of introducing troops to hostile action. Look for a 48-hour notification requirement ANYWHERE in the Constitution. It doesn’t exist.

Second, it “provides” that the president can commit troops to hostilities for up to 30 days, and another 30 days to withdraw the troops. So, 60 days. Find a 30-day or 60-day limitation in the Constitution. Look on every page. You’ll never find one.

Third, in the event withdrawal cannot be accomplished within those 60 days, it “gives” the president another 30-day period to withdraw troops. So, 90 days total. Again, where is there any 90-day limitation in the Constitution? Nowhere. No such thing exists.

Okay, Audino, but Congress has the authority to declare war, and the president cannot commit troops to combat prior to that. Not so fast. Congress absolutely has the power to declare war, but “declare” is not permission…it is an acknowledgement that a state of war exists. Our history proves the point…in our 250 years as a nation, our presidents have committed troops to hostile action nearly 300 times. In that same time, how many wars has Congress declared? Five.

• War of 1812
• Mexican-American War
• Spanish-American War
• WWI
• WWII.

Why is this so? Because the drafters of our constitution knew that not every fight rose to the level of war, and that the hard realities of national security meant that the president should not have to wait on anyone else before acting to violently secure our vital national interests. If Congress thinks otherwise, it can always choose to stop funding the military.

So, if anyone was advantaged by this entire waste of time/resources on the Hill this week, it wasn’t us…it was the Iranian Regime. They will be emboldened by a US Congress acting to undermine its own President’s efforts to act (lawfully and constitutionally) to secure our vital national interests. I hope those Oscar Winners on the Hill are happy with themselves and with their little charade.

We discussed all of the above AND the Iran situation on the Frontlines Report this week. My guest is Andrew Ghalili, whose career has been in security & intelligence, and he now serves as the Director of Policy for the National Union for Democracy in Iran. He works closely with Iranian Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi (son of the late Shah of Iran). You will hear some inside skinny on Iran! Click on the link to listen to our discussion: https://frontlinesoffreedom.com/show-963/

Graphic reading "War Powers Act of 1973: Unconstitutional" beside a rifle magazine on a U.S. Army uniform tape
Written by Ernie Audino Senior Military Fellow, Kurdistan Program (U.S. Chair), Gold Institute for International Strategy

June 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

Voter registration by party in 2026 and 2028 battleground states

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.


FLORIDA

Net Shift Since May: R+8,830

If you’d like to understand just how screwed Democrats are long-term in Florida, consider the fact that most states in this sample of seven are showing (or have shown) some signs of life for Democrats, even if only for the run-up to primary elections. This is not happening in Florida at all, as Democrats fell further back in May than they did in April.

Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

IOWA

Net Shift Since May: D+1,953

April’s shift was the first technical gain for Democrats in raw registrations since I’ve been tracking these figures, but they still managed to fall further back as far as percentage of voter registration thanks to maintenance that winnowed both parties’ memberships. In May, Democrats made their first legitimate gain since I’ve been covering these on a monthly basis, both in raw numbers and by percentage.

The pro-Democrat shift is tied exclusively to the Iowa primaries, which concluded last week. Republicans made nice gains as well, so I would wager this is a blip in a long-term trend, not a reversion of Iowa to battleground status. Democrats were nominating statewide candidates and four U.S. House candidates, while Republicans were only nominating two House candidates.

Iowa has two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party. The majority could be won or lost for the GOP depending on how IA-1 and IA-3 shake out.

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since May: D+4,008 Total, D+5,668 Active

The best news you’ll read in this month’s report, believe it or not, is that Pennsylvania’s figures only reflect the gains above. They are down from the past two months because the Pennsylvania primaries have come and gone — as I’ve been predicting and noticing in county-by-county numbers.

Just as I explained last month, these numbers do not make sense based on registration trends elsewhere, even in places where Democrats are making temporary gains. In fact, I see no possibility that Oregon should be making Republican gains (it is) but Pennsylvania would be having a genuine change of course unrelated to an approaching election. Most of this shift appears to be Philadelphia-centric, and validating my point is the fact that Erie County has shifted Republican in the last quarter (since the February update), and Northampton County is generally treading water. There does not appear to be a legitimate coalition shift away from MAGA in Pennsylvania with the working-class voter.

Republicans have held their own in the two weeks since primaries ended, and the Erie and Northampton bellwethers are largely unchanged. Party switchers have favored the GOP in the past two weeks, and I suspect the bleeding will stop moving forward. Pennsylvania sits significantly to the right of its November 2024 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since May: R+179

The North Carolina GOP again made a narrow lead in the voter roll with primaries in the rear view mirror. The overall lead is now 116,616 to the right of the former GOP deficit at the time of the November 2024 election.

With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since May: No Update

New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.

The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for said Senate seat.

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since May: No Update

I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses — which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips.

Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here — not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.

NEVADA

Net Shift Since May: D+2,135

June 9 is almost here (Nevada primaries), and with it, we should see an end to the monthly Clark County onslaught. Clark was again responsible for nearly the entirety of Democrat gains in May. Republicans cling to a narrow voter registration edge of +3,609 — or +12,809 right of when Trump won the state by 3.1% in November 2024.

Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.


Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.