A nation’s strength cannot be judged just by the magnitude of its economy, the level of its stock market, or the extent of its banking institutions. True national strength lies in a people’s ability to produce the goods needed to maintain their way of life.

The United States needs to have the ability to manufacture medicine for its hospitals, transformers for its electrical grid, semiconductors for its technology, machinery for its factories, vehicles for its economy, and weapons for its defense. It isn’t just losing jobs when a country loses these capabilities; it is, in effect, giving up a certain degree of its independence.

Manufacturing forms the basis of the visible economy. Since most people do not take much time to think about foundations because they are generally out of sight, everyone in the structure eventually feels the effects when the foundation starts to deteriorate.

More than four decades have seen America allow that foundation to erode.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that American manufacturing employment had reached a record high of 19.6 million jobs in June 1979, while by July 2026 it had dropped to about 12.6 million. Although the American population increased significantly over that time, the country had nearly seven million fewer manufacturing workers. This represents a decline of roughly 36% from the 1979 peak.

Part of the decline can be credited to technological advances and increased productivity. Nowadays, modern factories are able to produce a greater amount of goods using fewer workers than was possible in 1979. We ought to welcome any innovation which makes American companies more competitive. As long as automation expands domestic production and gives rise to new opportunities, it is not opposed to the American worker.

Yet productivity by itself does not account for the whole situation. Many companies shifted their production abroad in order to benefit from lower labour costs, weaker environmental protections, government subsidies, and favourable trade policies. The Washington authorities frequently encouraged this kind of transition on the basis of the belief that Americans could design their products at home, manufacture them overseas and buy them at a low price without in any way weakening their national strength.

The theory did not take into account the relationship between production and power.

A blueprint may be useful, but it doesn’t mean it is a factory. A patent cannot carry out the refining of a critical mineral. Software can’t manufacture a transformer without the use of steel, copper, machinery, electricity, and skilled workers. Although financial capital can buy equipment, it cannot immediately recover the industrial knowledge that has been lost over decades.

The effects of a factory closing are not confined to the building itself. Experienced workers either move away or retire. The suppliers vanish. Technical knowledge ceases to be passed on from one generation to the next. Local tax income falls, and the communities lose the economic security which supports families, schools, churches, and small businesses.

Industrial capacity is like fertile farmland. A careful farmer won’t use up his store of seed corn on the assumption that money will bring about a further harvest; instead, he guards the source of future production. For a long time, America regarded its industrial inheritance as if it could be sold without any consequences.

THE PRICE OF DEPENDENCE

The United States is still a major player in manufacturing. According to the Department of Commerce, manufacturing adds approximately $2.9 trillion to the American economy, supports around 13 million workers, and accounts for about 11% of gross domestic product.

The figures show that America still has a huge foundation on which to rebuild and must not be regarded as evidence of the weaknesses which have appeared in key industries.

In 2025, the Food and Drug Administration stated that over half of the pharmaceuticals distributed in the United States were made in other countries. The number of manufacturers in the United States that produced the active pharmaceutical ingredients was 9%. China had 22% and India 44%.

It therefore follows that a large number of the medicines available in American hospitals and pharmacies rely on factories, governments, transportation systems, and political situations which are outside our control.

The trade in ordinary consumer goods is a normal aspect of a sound economy, while relying on foreign countries for essential medicines poses a threat to national security. If a hostile government acts, a regional conflict breaks out, shipping routes are disrupted, or another pandemic occurs, access to those medicines could be interrupted when Americans need them most.

The electrical grid is also coming up against the same problem. According to the Department of Energy, the time taken to deliver distribution transformers has risen from about 3 to 6 months in 2019 to 12 to 30 months in 2023. Transformers are by no means optional equipment since they are necessary for supplying electricity to homes, hospitals, military bases, businesses, and factories.

A modern economy would be no different from a body lacking a properly working circulatory system. Although energy might be available at the source, it could not get to the places where it is required.

There is also the matter of critical minerals. According to the United States Geological Survey, the economic activity of industries that depend on minerals was about $4.09 trillion in 2025, and the United States still relied on China as a major source for 14 of the 33 critical minerals for which the country had the highest level of import dependence.

Such materials are employed in aircraft, electronics, communications systems, batteries, medical equipment, energy infrastructure, plus precision weapons; production halts long before the assembly line reaches the final product if secure access to them is not available.

The danger doesn’t apply only to one particular industry. Modern manufacturing consists of an interconnected system, so a lack of one cheap component can bring about the stoppage of the production of an item worth millions of dollars. This happened to Americans when shortages of semiconductors disrupted car production during the pandemic; a chip that cost only a few dollars was enough to stop the sale of a whole automobile.

Military logistics is a field in which national security planners are aware of this principle; an aircraft, for example, will stay on the ground if one of its critical parts is not available, just as the civilian economy does.

REBUILDING WITHOUT RETURNING TO THE PAST

You don’t need to try to reproduce the economy that existed in 1955 if you want to restore manufacturing in the United States. The aim should be to create the most advanced, productive, secure, and innovative industrial economy in the world.

Modern factories use skilled labour together with robotics, artificial intelligence, advanced materials, precision machining, and digital engineering; although they need engineers and programmers, they also need electricians, welders, toolmakers, technicians, equipment operators, and maintenance professionals.

The future factory ought to be located in America.

There are some positive developments; in July the Department of Commerce announced that TSMC’s intended investments within semiconductor manufacturing in the United States had amounted to $265 billion and the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that private goods-producing industries had registered an annual growth rate of 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026.

These investments demonstrate that America can attract large-scale production when businesses meet the following conditions: a serious national commitment, access to reliable energy, a skilled workforce, predictable regulation, and a competitive business environment. It would establish the conditions for production without attempting to manage every factory from Washington. Private enterprise remains the most effective engine of progress and development. However, government has a legitimate responsibility to protect national security, enforce fair trade, maintain infrastructure, and ensure that American companies are not forced to compete against foreign governments that manipulate markets and subsidize strategic industries.

Tariffs may be used as one of the tools when foreign countries are engaging in unfair trading practices. Similarly, tax policy, the possibility of reforming it, domestic energy production, research investment, workforce training, and government purchasing are all important factors. It is impossible for anyone policy to overcome several decades of industrial decline.

The nation needs a strategy that continues over election cycles and, as a result, achieves observable outcomes.

The strategy must start with a national evaluation of essential manufacturing capacity. The federal government ought to determine which medicines, minerals, components, machinery, energy systems, and defense products cannot safely be depended on foreign supply chains. It should then assess the amount of domestic capacity that is available, where the most serious gaps lie, and how quickly production could be increased in an emergency.

This evaluation must not turn into yet another report that is left unread in a federal office; instead, Congress should mandate that public updates be issued each year, including specific benchmarks relating to domestic production, workforce development, supply-chain security, and emergency capacity.

THE DIGNITY OF PRODUCTIVE WORK

Restoring manufacturing also needs a change in culture.

For years, too many students were told that success required a four-year university degree. Technical education was often treated as a secondary option, even as employers struggled to find qualified workers for skilled positions.

A machinist who can make a component to the exact required tolerance has valuable knowledge. An electrician working in an advanced factory has a serious responsibility. A welder who is building a bridge, a pipeline, a ship, or a pressure vessel is carrying out work upon which other people’s lives may depend.

Since these jobs require intelligence, discipline, sound judgment, and a good deal of experience, they ought to be regarded as honorable occupations and ways of serving the nation.

Students should have clearly defined routes available to them into apprenticeships, technical programs, engineering, and advanced manufacturing. Businesses should carry out training instead of relying on someone else to create a qualified workforce. The states should make sure that their education programs correspond with the real needs of employers in the local area.

Veterans also have abilities that may enhance American industry. The experience gained through military service includes lessons in accountability, teamwork, maintenance, logistics, technical ability, and the significance of completing a mission. These qualities can be directly applied to leadership in manufacturing and to the carrying out of skilled production.

Families also have a responsibility. Parents must teach their children that dignity is derived from honest work and that having a useful skill can bring about both personal independence and national value. Because of our faith we remember that work consists not simply of a transaction; it is one way in which human beings exercise stewardship, support their families, serve their neighbours, and make a contribution to an ideal greater than themselves.

SOVEREIGNTY REQUIRES CAPACITY

America ought to engage in trade with other countries. We should welcome investment which leads to the establishment of factories in the United States, hires American workers, passes on useful knowledge, and enhances domestic supply chains. Economic relationships can lead to peace and prosperity so long as they are mutual and correspond to the national interest.

Trade becomes hazardous when it leads on dependency in sectors essential towards survival and security. A nation which is sovereign needn’t make every product it uses; it should be able to produce those things it cannot afford to lose. Food, energy, equipment, semiconductors, communications systems, transportation equipment, critical minerals, machine tools, and defense materiel belong within that category. Domestic capacity in these industries should be treated as national infrastructure.

Congress should assess legislation by considering whether it increases or decreases that capacity. Federal agencies have to eliminate unnecessary barriers that stop factories, mines, refineries, power plants, and infrastructure projects from being constructed. Corporate leaders should take national resilience into account together with their quarterly profits. Investors ought to realize that long-term American production can offer both economic value and security.

People have a role that goes beyond voting once every two or four years. Americans can choose to buy goods that are produced in this country when it is practical, they can encourage young people to take up skilled occupations, and they can ask their elected representatives to take account of the state of the nation’s industry. Local communities can accept responsible manufacturing projects and help residents get ready for the jobs that these projects will create.

Rebuilding American manufacturing will be a lengthy process; this is a reason to act promptly rather than one for continuing continued dependence.

The fact that the United States became the world’s leading industrial power was not accidental. Over many generations Americans have put together natural resources, private enterprise, scientific research, skilled labour, faith, and a readiness to build. The result was that their efforts provided for our nation, helped our allies, defeated tyranny, and established the largest middle class in history.

We have inherited the strength that they produced. Our duty is to restore it and pass it on.

A nation that produces necessary goods itself has options; one that relies on other countries must ask for permission, wait, or pay whatever fee the situation calls for. It is this difference that sets economic convenience apart from national sovereignty.

America still possesses the people, the resources, the capital, and the ingenuity necessary to take the lead in manufacturing; what we now need is the discipline to regard industrial capacity as a national priority and the patience to rebuild it properly.

It has to start in Washington, but it can’t stay there; it needs to get to the governors, the legislatures, the schools, the businesses, the churches, the families and individual citizens. The extent of national renewal will finally be seen in the number of factories that are operating, the security of the supply chains, the availability of skilled workers, the reliability of the infrastructure, and the ability of communities to sustain themselves.

American freedom has always rested on the ability of its citizens to build, produce, repair, and serve; if we are to preserve that freedom, we must once again become a nation of builders.

Michael T. Flynn, LTG USA (Ret.) is the chairman of the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington, DC-based think-and-do tank.

General Flynn on the qualities that separate successful wartime presidents from failed ones, and what America needs from its leaders now.

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There has been little written about the basic military order of battle of Iran’s conventional forces. A strategic assessment of the Artesh Ground Forces, their structure, and their capabilities.

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Dear America,

Never forget that in warfare the enemy has a vote & they also have spies everywhere, to include inside the very decision making systems we believe we control.

Additionally, don’t take our eyes off Russia nor any of the “watch” conditions surrounding China’s actions. Our actions (or lack of them) equate to their strategic counteractions (all sides).

Then what are the strategic indicators that a nation is about to go to full scale war?

Key signs a nation is preparing for full scale war include sudden military mobilization, stockpiling supplies, heightened cyber activity, & aggressive rhetoric from leadership. Watch for diplomatic evacuations, sanctions buildup, or unusual troop movements near borders. These often signal intent before shots are fired.

Russia & Ukraine are well past these steps.

We need to ask the question, what is China’s posture just across the straits of Taiwan?

Does America have all the options in place for our success there (ie., if we decide to go full scale into Iran)?

Does movement of strategic assets such as NUCLEAR weapons, ballistic weapons, large-scale logistics capabilities indicate additional scaling up of major WAR preparation?

Movement of these type capabilities is one of the strongest indicators & there appears to be some of these indicators in Russia. When you see NUCLEAR or ballistic missile repositioning, especially to forward bases or hardened sites, this is among the strongest indicators of escalation intent. Large-scale logistics like fuel convoys (especially unusual types of fuel), ammunition trains, or hospital ship deployments signal sustained conflict prep, not just posturing. When you see all three together, it’s rarely a bluff. However, sustaining the sustainers is a monumental task for any nation.

Have we pre-positioned any military or strategic assets that indicate total war in and around the Persian Gulf? Are we ready for a breakout in the Pacific?

In the Middle East, the answer is YES. The U.S. has significantly reinforced the Persian Gulf with at least two carrier strike groups, with their dozens of destroyers, Marine expeditionary units, additional fighter squadrons, & mine countermeasures ships.

This buildup, the largest since 2003 (pre-invasion of the disastrous Iraq invasion), supports ongoing operations against Iran, with forces positioned for sustained combat, blockade enforcement, & potential escalation. No public evidence of NUCLEAR weapons movements, but the scale of conventional assets signals high readiness for major conflict.

Are there any U.S. Marine or Army logistics units that have been deployed to the Middle East (these are major indicators for ground operations)?

At least two Marine Expeditionary Units have deployed to the region with their full logistics combat elements for self-sustainment. Reported Army units like elements of the 82nd ABN and others are there too, which always bring attached sustainment & logistics support. No standalone large Army logistics units have been publicly flagged, but the overall force posture in the ME is robust.

Assume our President has all this information as well as many other strike & sustainment packages required for large scale Middle East operations.

Are we prepared elsewhere around the world or do we only possess a one Major Regional Conflict military?

Decades of sustained WAR & deterioration & diminishment in the ranks of key leaders for slog it out type warfare are questions our nation MUST address.

WARs (or Stupid Wars), once engaged (and we are fully engaged in the ME & are in close contact in Eastern Europe & in the Pacific region), MUST achieve victory at all costs. Any other outcome will change the strategic direction of the United States forever.

Our nation MUST pray for our President & peace. However, if America is placed in a position where we MUST fight, then we MUST win.

There are no other acceptable outcomes.

Michael T. Flynn, LTG USA (Ret.) is the chairman of the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington, DC-based think-and-do tank.

The Doomsday Clock reads 89 seconds to midnight.

Reflecting growing concerns about multiple risks, including:

• Nuclear weapons and increasing geopolitical tensions.
• Biological threats and advances in biotechnology.
• Failures of international leadership and cooperation.
• Artificial Intelligence.

Nine nations are widely recognized as possessing nuclear weapons, yet many of the major Cold War-era nuclear arms control agreements have either expired, been terminated, or are no longer being implemented. This is the reality we face, and we must be prepared to navigate it with resolve, adaptability, and purpose.

What we are witnessing leaves no room for complacency. This is a defining moment that calls on all of us, across the globe, to awaken to the challenges before us and respond with the urgency they demand.

In February 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expired. For fifteen years, that treaty capped Russian and American deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 each. The treaty was imperfect and compromised by counting rules that permitted ambiguity. But it existed. It provided communication channels between Moscow and Washington. It established red lines that both sides understood. It reflected an assumption that both superpowers feared nuclear war more than they feared each other.

That framework no longer exists. There is no successor agreement in place. The United States and Russia are not engaged in arms control negotiations. There is no bilateral dialogue on nuclear doctrine, escalation thresholds, or crisis management. Moscow is modernizing its arsenal without constraint. Beijing is doing the same. Washington is debating whether nuclear weapons should even be part of American strategy.

This represents strategic malpractice at the highest levels.

The reality we face is stark and demands clarity. Russia maintains approximately 5,977 nuclear warheads, with over 1,700 deployed on active systems. The United States possesses roughly 5,044 warheads, also heavily deployed. Together, these two nations control 87% of the world’s nuclear inventory. China operates about 600 warheads and is expanding aggressively, with projections placing its arsenal at over 1,000 by 2030. France maintains 300 warheads. The United Kingdom holds 225 warheads. India and Pakistan each possess roughly 160 warheads, locked in a rivalry that erupted into open military conflict in May 2025 and could escalate to nuclear war at any moment. North Korea has assembled roughly 50 warheads and is receiving technological assistance from Russia. Israel maintains approximately 90 warheads under a policy of deliberate strategic ambiguity.

That is the picture confronting the United States. Nine nuclear powers collectively control 12,200 warheads without an international framework constraining deployment or use.

Five flashpoints demand American attention and immediate strategic focus:

• Russia and NATO. Moscow’s military doctrine explicitly permits nuclear first-use in response to a conventional attack deemed to threaten Russian territory, and with New START expired, Russia operates under no numerical ceiling on warhead deployment.
• Iran and the Middle East. The Trump administration correctly assesses that Iran does not currently possess nuclear weapons, yet significant uncertainty remains regarding Iran’s intentions, the status of its nuclear program, and Tehran’s willingness to escalate regional conflict in ways that could trigger miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation between American, Israeli, and Iranian forces.
• India and Pakistan. These two nations clashed militarily for 88 hours in May 2025, involving drones, missiles, and active nuclear brinkmanship, and the boundary between controlled conflict and uncontrolled escalation remains razor thin.
• North Korea. The regime is actively developing intercontinental ballistic systems and receiving technological assistance from Russia in exchange for troops deployed to Ukraine.
• China and Taiwan. China is preparing military options for the unification of Taiwan, while the United States has committed to Taiwan’s defense, creating a scenario where escalation from conventional conflict to nuclear exchange becomes plausible.

These are not theoretical exercises or academic scenarios. These are operational contingencies that military planners in Washington, Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi, and Seoul are actively preparing for.

The non-proliferation regime that successfully prevented nuclear proliferation for decades is collapsing. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan in recognition of shifting regional security dynamics. South Korea and Japan are publicly discussing weapons programs. Turkey and Poland are questioning the credibility of American nuclear guarantees and considering whether domestic nuclear capability is necessary for security. France has announced plans to expand its nuclear arsenal. When the political leadership of allied nations concludes that America’s nuclear umbrella cannot be relied upon, they pursue their own deterrents. This proliferation cascades. When one regional power acquires nuclear weapons, others inevitably follow. Proliferation becomes self-reinforcing, creating instability that benefits no one.

The collapse of the international framework that managed nuclear risk for fifteen years demands strategic reckoning at every level of American leadership and society. The absence of successor agreements, the silence on bilateral communication channels, and the decision to permit two decades of arms control progress to evaporate represent a fundamental departure from the strategic discipline that defined the Cold War and the post-Cold War era.

American forces must be prepared for contingencies that we hope to avoid but must nonetheless plan to manage or defeat. The assumptions that governed military planning for the past thirty years are no longer valid. Doctrine, training, force posture, and strategic communication must reflect the world as it exists, not as we wish it to be.

American citizens must understand that this is not a foreign policy abstraction debated by specialists in think tanks. It is a foundational question about whether the nation can sustain the principles and institutions that have governed its survival. The nation has a Constitution that limits executive power and preserves civilian control over matters of war. The nation has inherited from previous generations a strategic position earned through military sacrifice and strategic discipline. The nation has a responsibility to the generation that will inherit the consequences of today’s choices. That responsibility cannot be outsourced or delayed.

For eighty years, since Hiroshima, no nuclear power has employed a nuclear weapon in anger. Not once. That record is remarkable and reflects deliberate decisions made by political and military leadership to constrain escalation and fear the consequences of nuclear war more than they feared each other. Those decisions are no longer being made. The political will to restore strategic frameworks has evaporated. The sense of shared vulnerability that once unified adversaries around mutual survival has dissolved into competitive posturing and strategic ambition.

The moment to rebuild strategic stability is here. American leadership, military and civilian alike, must act now with the clarity and urgency that characterized the Cold War generation.

The price of delay is incalculable and irreversible.

Michael T. Flynn, LTG USA (Ret.) is the chairman of the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington, DC-based think-and-do tank.

Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward northern Israel tonight, marking the first direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory since the April 8 ceasefire that ended the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched the strikes under the codename “Operation True Promise 5,” triggering widespread air-raid sirens across northern and central Israel. Israeli air defenses intercepted at least four Iranian missile barrages, and the IDF confirmed all missiles were intercepted.

No confirmed casualties as of this writing but do not be deceived by that outcome.

The intent was not ambiguous.

Iran fires ballistic missiles at a sovereign nation and calls it a warning.

Iran threatens American and Israeli targets across the entire region and frames it as a proportional response.

This is the regime that the world is being asked to negotiate with in good faith.

@realDonaldTrump urged both sides to avoid further escalation and told Iran to return to talks, saying the missile launches were “certainly not going to help negotiations” and calling on Tehran to “get back to the table and make a deal.”

I respect the President’s instinct to pursue a resolution. But the American people deserve honesty about what they are watching.

Initial U.S. / Iran talks in Pakistan in April already failed to reach a peace deal.

President Trump then announced an open-ended extension of the ceasefire and a continuation of a U.S. blockade until negotiations concluded “one way or the other.”

The regime in Tehran spent that entire period reconstituting, probing, and waiting for an opening. Tonight was that opening.

A ceasefire is not a peace agreement. I have said this publicly for months. Ceasefires buy time. The question is always who uses that time more effectively.

Iran used it to reload and to watch. The moment conditions allowed, they launched. That is not a failure of diplomacy. That is the Iranian regime behaving precisely as the Iranian regime always behaves.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a statement today warning that “should these acts of aggression be repeated, the responses will be broader in scope and will encompass all American and Zionist targets throughout the region.”

The men running Tehran do not want a deal that constrains them. They want a deal that protects them long enough to outlast American political will.

The ceasefire left unresolved the core issues: Iran’s ballistic missile program, Hezbollah’s arsenal, and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. None of those issues resolved themselves during the pause. They were simply waiting in the background, exactly where the Iranian regime needed them to be.

This is fifth-generation warfare operating simultaneously on the kinetic, diplomatic, and information fronts. Iran fires missiles, claims victimacy in the international press, threatens American bases, and positions itself as the aggrieved party in negotiations.

Eyes open, America. The Strait of Hormuz, the proxy networks, the ballistic missile inventory, and the unresolved nuclear program do not disappear because diplomats are talking in a conference room. The threat does not pause because we want it to.

Pray for the men and women in the region serving under our flag tonight 🙏🏼🇺🇸