This article was written by Natalie Nice and appeared in Susquehanna County Independent. OPINION: On the man who called all electoral, state votes in 2024.
Featuring Seth Keshel, MBA, Senior Fellow, Gold Institute for International Strategy
Meet Seth Keshel. He should be famous, and the only election forecaster you ever listen to again. On October 24, 2024, the New York Times published a feature article, “Meet the Election Denier Forecasting the 2024 Race,” attempting to discredit him right before the election because he factored state-specific fraud into his models, citing Pennsylvania as one of the most worrisome offenders.
He predicted Trump 312 electoral votes to Harris 226. The results matched EXACTLY. He also correctly called the winner in all 56 races (50 states + DC + ME/NE district splits).
As for the current midterm races, Keshel completely rejects the current blue-wave narrative. He asserts the GOP will likely retain the Senate and can keep the House if GOP voters show up even at 2022 levels. If he is correct, this shows exceptional support for the GOP because, historically, the president’s party has lost seats in Congress in almost every midterm since World War II. He is calling Texas for Ken Paxton, even though the consensus among most pollsters is that James Talarico currently has a four-point lead.
As Seth notes, it is a tried-and-true way for pollsters, beholden to the Democrats, to hedge their bets. They discourage Republicans from going out to vote by grossly exaggerating Democrats’ success in advance of the election. Then, right before ballots are cast, they adjust their numbers back down, closer to reality, so they can claim plausible deniability and retain a bit of credibility in the eyes of the public.
The pattern has been repeated so often in recent years that once you see it, you cannot unsee it. Midterm elections in Susquehanna County will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3 at your local precinct; polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Read the full article at Susquehanna County Independent
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
