I’m Back From Bosnia – Trip Report

Soldiers and an armored vehicle at a roadside checkpoint under a Croatian flag during the Balkan wars

This article was written by Ernie Audino and appeared in Frontlines of Freedom. I’M BACK FROM BOSNIA – TRIP REPORT.

Spent a few days this week in Bosnia-Herzegovina…specifically at a Defense Summit in the Republic of Srpska. It was a good opportunity to reflect on the Bosnian Civil War, of course, but also some of the realities of NATO and some of the realities of air power….especially so, as they help explain why the current Iran situation is dragging on for no good military reason.

First, a little Cold War history…during the dissolution of the communist state of Yugoslavia in 1992, a constituent part, Bosnia-Herzegovina, proclaimed independence on 6Mar92, which was recognized by the European Community on 6April and the USA on 7April. The problem….Bosnia had a sizable ethnic Serbian population in and around Banja Luka who rejected a future wherein they would be part of an independent Bosnia-Herzegovina where the combined populations of Catholics (17%) and Muslims (44%) would outnumber ethnic Serbs (32.5%). The result…civil war, the introduction of Serbian forces under Slobadan Milosovic, and massive ethnic cleansing at intensities not seen since the Nazi death camps. NATO established a no-fly zone over the area of hostilities, Operation Deny Flight, (which had no compelling effect on the ground) but it did result in the first air-to-air kill in NATO’s history. Five Serbian J21 fighters violated the no-fly-zone to attack targets on the ground and were shot down by two pairs of US F16s. Three years later, peace negotiations in Dayton ended the fighting leaving a Serbian dominated Republic of Srpska confederated with a Croat/Bosniak dominated Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Operation Allied Force followed in 1999 in response to continued ethnic cleansing in Kosovo by Serbian forces under Slobadan Milosovic. Allied Force lasted 78 days and involved 1055 NATO aircraft (700+ of them were US aircraft). Despite the overwhelming size of NATO air power, air power (again) produced no compelling military reality for Serbian forces on the ground. Although General Wesley Clarke credits air power for ending the war in Kosovo, the truth is Serb forces ceased combat operations only when on 3Jun99 Moscow withdrew its diplomatic support for Serbia and sided with NATO to present terms of surrender to Serbia. The result…Serbia was diplomatically isolated and ceased combat 7 days later on 11Jun99.

A few thoughts from this history and my trip.

First, as supremely important as humanitarian reasons are, we cannot allow them to masquerade as a vital national interest. I hate to say that, but as humans, our capacity for compassion is infinite, but our resources are not. There will always be humanitarian reasons for going to war…but we will run out of American blood and treasure. This is why rational nations only go to war to defend, secure, promote or seize vital national interests….yes, like ensuring a permanently non-nuclear Iran.

Second, defense alliances, like NATO, are not charity cases. Not everyone who wants to be included in the alliance is necessarily worth admitting to the alliance. Why? Because worthy membership must be limited to only those who have the will and capability to throw a punch. The alliance goes both ways. If a nation is admitted, and they have no impressive military capabilities, then membership for them imposes only costs on the alliance, not added capability. In reality, they are nothing more than a tripwire.

Third, we Americans are mystified why most of our NATO partners refuse to join us in combat with Iran (even though we joined them and did the bulk of the heavy lifting in Bosnia, where we had no vital national interest at stake). I am mystified, too, especially given that most of our NATO partners produce no oil and consequently HAVE a vital national interest in the oil that flows thru the Straits of Hormuz. Consequently, they are either irrational, or incapable of throwing a punch, or cowardly, or (dare I say it) wittingly aiding the enemy.

But here’s the thing….the frustrating thing. We still need NATO. NATO needs NATO. But we all need NATO members who are willing and able to kick ass. I made this point at the Defense Summit, and paraphrased the late General George Marshall, architect of the Marshall Plan….”We should not fight unless we must. We must not fight alone, and that’s because we must not fight for long.” President Trump is absolutely right to pressure our NATO allies to start pulling their weight. We need to keep that up. I’m happy to say that not a single European attendee at the Summit disagreed with me. Nevertheless, the proof will be in the pudding.

My guest on the Frontlines Report this week is a veteran of the battlefields of Lebanon. He is Dr Gaby Hawat, an old friend of mine, who survived combat and the horrors of civil war and later built great success and a wonderful family in the USA. He and I discussed Lebanon and Iran. He frequently goes back and forth to Lebanon and knows the region like few others. Click on the link to hear the discussion: https://frontlinesoffreedom.com/show-962/

Written by Ernie Audino Senior Military Fellow, Kurdistan Program (U.S. Chair), Gold Institute for International Strategy

Chasing Inflated Pigskins = Political and Civic Brilliance

NFL football and politics satire illustration

Coming clean after years of thinking I’ve been right — courtesy of our modern day gladiator-scholars.


A few weeks ago, I was on an early morning flight from a major football city back to my sunny desert home. The man occupying the seat next me had his social media sitting up, and I accidentally caught a glance at his name. After finding it familiar, I ran a search and found that this guy was a starting NFL defensive back for a very popular franchise with fans scattered from coast to coast. He sat swiping on Instagram and liking videos with Democrat politicians and supportive celebrities championing woke mind virus causes.

I have to admit, I felt sheepish writing a bestselling newsletter focused on American political process and clean elections — and definitely about having recently published a book that was weeks away from being promoted by the President of the United States himself. I was in the presence of unmatched brilliance for four hours, and in that period, I was forced to confront my beliefs.

Does hating mail-in ballots make me racist?

Is selecting Congressmen on the basis of color actually more important than content of character?

Do we expect too much accountability for domestic violence in the NFL?

Then it all hit home for me in a very uncomfortable way. You see, that’s our guy up there. I don’t mean the President — I mean Jaxson Dart. After Dart’s teammates were offended by him exercising a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to introduce the sitting president, I couldn’t help but challenge all of my long-held positions. Since there are so many of you who read this newsletter who pay to receive the full offering of analysis, I have no choice but to be transparent.

To this point, I have considered these things instrumental in shaping my worldview and political acumen:

  • Parents who educated me on current events and political implications from a young age
  • Growing up in a conservative culture that stressed application of faith to one’s worldview
  • Service in the military with deep immersion in foreign policy and intelligence strategy
  • Long-term approach to success made possible by my interest in baseball
  • Statistical mindset honed while working as a baseball statistician and combat-deployed officer, which directly influenced my ability to discern electoral trends

Now — it’s all hanging in the balance. For the first time, I am wondering if chasing an inflated pigskin around a grass or artificial field intricately programs a man to be an expert in all things political. Perhaps there is a method to this madness — that players can support exclusively left-wing political concepts under the guise of freedom and in the name of anti-racism, while simultaneously and righteously crucifying teammates for exhibiting public support for someone holding different viewpoints.

It doesn’t matter that a city choked out by illegal immigration (is anyone illegal on stolen land, anyway?) will suffer economic decay, impact the middle class, which would like to attend football games, and contribute to lower revenues which equate to lower pay and contract opportunities for the players supporting liberal politicians. Perhaps their virtue can’t be bought?

Perhaps I’ve been illogical and immature to have concerns about the lives of crime lived by so many NFL players. Even if their rates of domestic violence arrests are more than double that of the average 25-29 year old man, maybe the women deserved it, or worse, made racist comments while not recognizing the sheer brilliance of young Americans dealing with the onset of brain damage at such a young age to discern the American electorate in a way 77 million of their countrymen cannot.

After all, a life of largess lived with the benefit of multi-million dollar contracts affords them more time to swipe reels and consume that which the algorithm demands so they can be fully aware of everything we don’t know. These teams hire these professionals just as much for their brains as they do their ability to run an arbitrary distance at a great speed, slam their bodies into someone, and do it all again 30 seconds later. When I recognize my privilege and put it all together, maybe my decades of dedication to understanding the world and challenging what I thought was the status quo pales in comparison to these life experiences so few of us get:

  • Hitting blocking sleds
  • Diving on a rolling football (very weird bounces can happen)
  • Banging heads with your teammates after a big play
  • Punching other players in the face mask with your own hands if an altercation occurs
  • Catching the inflated pigskin
  • Running with an inflated pigskin and trying not to get caught
  • Kicking (!) the inflated pigskin

Arizona has a political candidate, Jay Feely, who is running a Republican campaign as a friend of the Clinton Foundation whose experience under pressure comes from attempting to kick inflated pigskins between yellow bars. That automatically means he is on a rendezvous with destiny to become our Commander-in-Chief. These players are staring down other multi-millionaires on a field for 3 hours on Sundays before heading home to beat the shit out of their wives and girlfriends. We are out here trying to operate successful businesses that hemorrhage a third of their revenues to this government that we thought used it for nefarious purposes. Perhaps we are all just racists and should listen to the true pros.

In all seriousness…

Yes, this piece has been a satirical one. You don’t need to adjust your glasses or unsubscribe.

It wasn’t so long ago that those pros could attend a ceremony with a president they didn’t like, do the deed, shut the hell up, and go home. Plenty of conservative-minded athletes visited the White House under Presidents Obama and Biden, zipped their mouths, and went on their way. Abdul Carter probably couldn’t list ten American presidents, yet wants to start the New York Giants out on a toxic note because the team’s de facto leader carried out a life experience he’ll never forget, or regret.

The NFL is a trash product with dead weight losers filling the rosters. It looks the other way on domestic violence, drug use, and rampant criminality while painting “end racism” in the end zones while they should be investing heavily in making sure the reprobates in the pads have access to something else to channel aggression into other than the gold diggers who take the beatings at home after the modern-day gladiatorial spectacle.

Dear NFL — shut the f*** up.


Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.

Mexican Contrasts

Chess pieces representing geopolitical strategy

(This article was written by Hermann Tertsch and appeared in El Debate.) Last Thursday, the Mexican Senate was the stage for a perfectly grotesque but highly significant day in which, within just a few hours, the country went from comedy and farce to tragedy and endless pain…

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Tech Innovators Face Wrath of Resentful Left

Tech innovators

(This article was written by Adelle Nazarian and appeared in Newsmax. Tech Innovators Face Wrath of Resentful Left)

Not a week goes by without some online pundit performing their ritual victory dance over Elon Musk’s latest stumble.

Remember the barely concealed glee and giddy coverage when arsonists torched a dozen Teslas?

Now a judge who just ruled against him has been forced to recuse herself after engaging with posts mocking him online.

The sneering has become a blood sport. But Musk is not alone in facing this coordinated hostility – he’s simply become the most visible target of a growing phenomenon that’s metastasized across Silicon Valley.

Tech innovators are now finding themselves in the crosshairs the moment anything goes sideways, with a press corps that circles like vultures, practically salivating for the next failure to dissect.

Take Palmer Luckey.

The Oculus founder’s sin?

Donating to a pro-Trump meme group.

That transgression earned him the eternal enmity of the liberal press establishment, which now reports on every setback at his defense tech firm, Anduril, with the enthusiasm of a sports commentator calling a demolition derby.

The same playbook unfolds with Sachin Dev Duggal. As the force behind Builder.ai, he positioned his company as a revolution in AI-no-code software and led it to unicorn status before it hit the rocks of administration.

Like every high stakes technology venture, Builder.ai faced genuine challenges.

But instead of being treated as part of the messy, high-risk reality of frontier innovation, those challenges were instantly weaponized into caricature, with Duggal himself cast as the villain du jour.

What followed looked less like authentic sober scrutiny than performative theatre, where public conclusions reached before the facts were even assembled, with the full story of what went wrong still far from settled.

This is the classic liberal playbook in action: Outrage first, facts later – if ever.

Of course, there is a reason this kind of coverage resonates.

These individuals aren’t mere innovators, they’re larger-than-life figures whose outsized ambitions invite fascination when things implode.

Anyone who’s binge-watched a documentary about a failed tech startup knows the voyeuristic appeal.

You get to dissect what went wrong without having any skin in the game.

It’s rubbernecking dressed up as analysis.

What we tend to forget myself included, is that failure is not a deviation from innovation but the very condition that makes it possible.

Setbacks, reversals and spectacular collapses are hardwired into the process, especially at the frontier where new technologies are still being forged and understood.

Real progress happens precisely in that state of uncertainty.

And yet, we fixate obsessively on the visible outcomes, particularly the dramatic failures, while missing the broader momentum these efforts generate.

Musk’s early years at SpaceX and Tesla were littered with near-constant crises that brought both companies to the precipice.

Today, they’re not just surviving.

They’re setting the global pace, with entire industries and governments adapting to their lead, while competitors like Ford, BYD and others scramble desperately to catch up.

Duggal’s experience reflects the same arc. Builder.ai, which he launched a decade ago, helped build crucial early momentum around AI-driven software development at a time when the sector was still finding its footing.

That field has since become the primary engine of global economic growth.

The company’s collapse does not erase that contribution. If anything, it clarifies the limits and points toward necessary evolution.

Duggal’s new venture, SeKondBrain.ai, is focused on addressing one of the core weaknesses of current AI systems: their opacity and lack of shared context, understanding, and memory across AI and humans.

The aim is to build AI systems and models that are more interpretable and reliable.

That shift, from scale to understanding, is precisely the kind of iterative refinement following high-profile setbacks.

Ridicule is harmless noise, especially when it comes from voices the public has long since learned to discount.

However, danger emerges when it’s amplified and weaponized.

With Musk, the shift is unmistakable. Once embraced by the left, he is now closely associated with Trump’s orbit, and has completely recalibrated the incentive structure around him.

Discrediting Musk’s ventures becomes a proxy war against the broader political project he is seen to support.

It’s no accident that well-funded groups like Indivisible Action have mobilized protests against him with backing from major Democratic donors with deep pockets and even deeper grievances.

In Duggal’s case, the campaign is more subtle but equally revealing. Nearly identical criticism has materialized across multiple outlets in seemingly suspicious unison, even as evidence emerges that fundamentally challenges the dominant narrative.

The coordination may be debatable, but the pattern undeniable.

A campaign of targeted negative coverage at that scale does not itself; and boardroom disputes have a nasty habit of weaponizing whatever tools are available, from media contacts to regulatory complaints.

Bruised egos aside, these coordinated assaults have real consequences that ripple far beyond Silicon Valley boardrooms.

Innovation-first startups are uniquely vulnerable in their early years because they require massive capital injections to build unproven products and sustain years of development before generating meaningful revenue.

That dependence on investor confidence creates a precarious foundation; once doubt crystallizes into narrative, the entire structure can collapse before the technology has any chance to prove itself viable.

The 90% failures rate for startups within the first five years isn’t just about bad ideas of poor execution.

It’s often about narrative momentum overwhelming economic reality. Tesla faced faced that pressure for years, with constant and relentless “bankruptcy watch” coverage that became a self-reinforcing prophecy with short seller and skeptical journalists feeding off of each other’s pessimism and covert jealousy.

In the end, Tesla survived thanks to Musk’s resourcefulness and determination.

So, switch off the outrage machine periodically.

What looks like chaos in emerging tech is often just the messy, non-linear process of innovation working itself out.

The rush to declare success or failure early creates a version of events taking on a life of their own, independent of facts. When you amplify that narrative without questioning its origins, you might be providing cover for someone else’s agenda — helping them push the story exactly where they want it to go.

Adelle Nazarian is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

The Netherlands Lacks Elected Mayors Who Could Get The Hague’s Coercion Laws Scrapped

Derk Jan Eppink column on Dutch mayors and asylum coercion laws

(This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in Wynia’s Week. Het ontbreekt Nederland aan gekozen burgemeesters die de Haagse dwangwetten van tafel zouden kunnen krijgen)

The Distribution Act (Spreidingswet), once presented as the solution to asylum problems, mainly spreads quarrels, conflicts, and violence. It is a coercion law that orders municipalities to take in asylum seekers, but most citizens feel the limit has been reached. Nevertheless, D66 Prime Minister Rob Jetten, after a week’s stay in the sunny Caribbean Netherlands, simply wants to press on. He intends to dispatch “flying teams of experts” against unwilling municipalities. The “experts” — a popular term in D66 circles — are supposed to convince local authorities and ignorant citizens that The Hague is right. “Smaller municipalities, too, must do their part in solidarity,” Jetten said.

The patience of the Netherlands’ top administrators is running out. Mark Boumans (VVD), mayor of Doetinchem and vice-chairman of the Association of Netherlands Municipalities (VNG), called for a hard line against protesters opposing the arrival of asylum-seeker centers. Citizen resistance is inevitable, but in such cases violence is a poor counselor and proves counterproductive.

The mayor of Doetinchem was named “Administrator of the Year” last year, and would certainly qualify for a larger municipality — perhaps one of the largest. On the program Buitenhof on May 17 he argued that the cabinet “should deploy the army” against rowdy protests. Armies, apart from war, are used by dictators to keep their own citizens under the boot. That the mayor of Doetinchem, a quiet town with the character of a village, brandishes such terms looks more like an open bid for a post in the Randstad.

Cultural Differences

The core problem — immigration and asylum — has been debated in the Netherlands in every possible way for thirty years. An asylum policy can only be effective if it is strict. Too large an inflow leads to friction, conflict, and revolts. Especially when cultural differences are large.

The Netherlands took in over 100,000 Ukrainians after the Russian invasion in 2022. A considerable number, but the cultural differences were bridgeable. Many studied or worked. It turns out differently with 100,000 Somalis, because the cultural gulf is too great. Let alone with 100,000 Palestinians, because then you would be importing the entire Gaza conflict along with them. There has to be a balance between numbers and cultural differences. During the First World War, the Netherlands, with six million inhabitants, took in a million Belgian refugees. Almost no one knows this, because there were few problems; the cultural differences were small.

The current inflow is too large and the outflow too small. That leads to conflicts between “know-it-all” administrators and citizens who are often looked down upon. Some media portray protesting citizens as “extremist” in order to criminalize them. Mayors and municipal councils are caught between hammer and anvil: a centralist The Hague and unwilling citizens. As the asylum stream grows, so does the asylum industry, such as the Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA), which this year has a budget of 4.2 billion euros. The number of COA staff grew from 3,000 to 8,000. It is “big business.”

With the continuing influx, the Distribution Act becomes unworkable and ultimately unenforceable, but for The Hague that is rocket science. Sharon Dijksma, mayor of Utrecht, is chair of the VNG — quite an achievement, given that she never completed her public administration studies at the University of Twente. She rose through the Young Socialists of the PvdA and became a member of the House of Representatives at twenty-three. She says: the Distribution Act is the law. Her law studies in Groningen, incidentally, were also never completed.

When it comes to mayors, the Netherlands holds a singular position in the EU: it is the only member state where the mayor is appointed “centrally.” The “Crown” appoints them; in practice the Minister of the Interior decides. In all other EU member states the mayor is elected, directly or sometimes via the municipal council. Take Belgium. There the elected mayor is not Brussels’ errand boy, but stands up for the citizens. In Flanders, mayors are a strong political force; they do not want (too many) asylum seekers, and the reception is far more austere than in the Netherlands, where Van der Valk hotels or even cruise ships open their doors. And so the influx naturally gravitates toward the Netherlands.

A mayor in the Netherlands looks over his shoulder at a domineering The Hague, where his next post is decided. In Belgium (but also in France, Italy, Austria, and the rest of Europe) the mayor looks the citizens straight in the eye. That makes the Dutch mayor weak and hesitant. Take acting mayor Mark Verheijen (VVD) of Wijdemeren, which includes Loosdrecht. The residents are informed late about the coming asylum-seeker center and angrily take to the streets. Verheijen cracks down hard, but then turns around and apologizes. He is stuck between citizens and The Hague. If he sides fully with the citizens, The Hague will not forget that when handing out mayoral posts.

At the local level the Netherlands is not a real democracy, because The Hague decides who becomes mayor. At the provincial level it is the same story. There the King’s Commissioner (CdK) is also appointed centrally, by The Hague, as a kind of “envoy of the King.” Here too the CdK will let the wishes of The Hague prevail over those of the provincial council members. Mayor and King’s Commissioner invariably tell their municipality and province: “The Hague requires it.” In this centralist model the House of Representatives is, to be sure, directly elected, but it increasingly takes on the character of a fragmented municipal council.

Cuddle Police or Club Police

Public administration is becoming confused. The Dutch police, once “your best friend,” are losing their bearings, especially at protest gatherings: who is right and who is wrong? At demonstrations by Extinction Rebellion, the riot police approach the demonstrators as if they were spoiled children — which they also are — who are asked to leave the highway. The protesters then simply remain seated. If necessary, the police carry them away. But at asylum-center protests, the riot police recklessly club citizens with batons, as if they were criminals. This leads, to use an English term, to “two-tier police.” In short: is it the cuddle police (knuffelpolitie) or the club police (knuppelpolitie)?

D66 was traditionally a proponent of the elected mayor, but now that the party provides the prime minister, it stays silent. A pity — it was a legacy of party figurehead Hans van Mierlo. An elected mayor has his own base and legitimacy; precisely what the higher powers in The Hague do not want. For The Hague, the mayor is a “subcontractor.”

Worse still: the Netherlands has “appointed mayors” who neglect their own citizens because they are too busy with “foreign policy,” especially in the four largest cities. Amsterdam mayor Femke Halsema tops them all, coming across as a political faith healer on a global scale. Her actual task, however, reads: to govern the city well.

No Base, But Plenty of Reprimands

Unelected mayors hand out reprimands the moment Israel is involved. The mayor of Utrecht laid a floral arrangement on the Domplein for the Nakba commemoration, while flowers and wreaths in memory of the May 4 Remembrance of the Dead were being thrown away just down the road. Tasteless. What is more, her Nakba narrative is historically incorrect.

Amsterdam conducts a foreign policy that makes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Hague practically superfluous. Would these unelected mayors pour so much time into “abroad” if they had to be elected at home in their own cities? Strong rival candidates would then step forward, some with a real base and more capable than they are. A mayor on a world tour would lose at home.

With these globe-trotting mayors, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is downgraded to an NGO that must provide aid worldwide and read leaders the riot act everywhere. Reprimands against Israel pile up. The term “Dutch interest”? Of no interest to our unelected, big-city “experts.”

Derk Jan Eppink is a Distinguished Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

The Enemies of National Priority

Chess pieces representing geopolitical strategy

(This article was written by Hermann Tertsch and appeared in El Debate.) I am not going to talk about the lists for the granting of social housing or aid in Spain, nor about the lists in the hospitals and the origin of the names. Nor about the percentages of immigrants who work in Spain, France, Holland or Germany…

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In Britain, France, and Germany, the Radical Opposition Is Breaking the Complacent Power of the Center

Derk Jan Eppink

(This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in Wynia’s Week. In Groot-Brittannië, Frankrijk en Duitsland breekt de radicale oppositie de zelfgenoegzame macht van het midden)

With the electoral nosedive of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Britain has now become the third major country in Western Europe — after Germany and France — to find itself in a political deadlock. The popularity of the leading political figures — Starmer, Merz, and Macron — hovers around 15%. At the same time, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is recklessly bucking the trend, legalizing roughly 500,000 illegal immigrants. Spain really ought to be thrown out of Schengen.

The only larger, stable country in Western Europe is … Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. A rung lower sits the Netherlands, with its minority Jetten cabinet, in much the same boat as the big three.

The General Discontent Grew Too Great

The big three have electoral systems that keep the “extremes” out, each country in its own way. In Britain, the candidate with the most votes wins; the rest are gone. The Germans have an ingenious system with a 5% threshold to keep smaller, radical parties out of parliament. It took the German Greens decades to get into the Bundestag. In presidential elections, France ratchets the stakes up to the breaking point, with a runoff round between the two strongest candidates. A genuine clash.

The “self-protection system” produces the opposite effect when the general discontent grows too great. The radical opposition bands together to break the complacent power. That is what Nigel Farage demonstrated last week with his “Reform UK.” Starting from almost nothing, he became the biggest winner in the British municipal elections.

I watched Farage rise in the European Parliament. His opponents invariably made the same mistake: underestimating him. He was laughed off by the European mandarins because he advocated Britain’s departure from the EU. That sounded like a “joke.” He started out on the back benches with a single ally, won elections, and formed a group that brought him to the front row. He used that spot as a foxhole against the EU. Brexit came, and Farage seemed superfluous. He left for British politics.

There too he was laughed at. The British system was dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Once again the laughter fell silent, because his Reform UK staked everything on “immigration,” the top priority of most voters.

Last week Farage drew many votes away from both Labour and the Conservatives: Reform UK even became the largest party. If a general election were held today, Farage would become Prime Minister of Britain.

Macron Squeezed Out by the Right and the Left

The same pattern in France. In the municipal elections this past March, Marine Le Pen’s “Rassemblement National” achieved a major breakthrough. The number of RN mayors rose from 827 in 2020 to around 3,000 this year. RN also made substantial gains in mid-sized cities. Large cities such as Paris generally vote left. In France, Macron’s incompetent “center” is being squeezed out by the right. And at the same time by the left, with a leading figure like Jean-Luc Mélenchon: a socialist out of the Stone Age, whose support base consists 70% of the “Muslim vote.” He essentially personifies “Islamo-socialism.”

Marine Le Pen’s participation in the presidential election is uncertain. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) accuses her of “misusing” European funds for national election campaigns. The French court will issue its ruling. If found guilty, she will not be able to run in next April’s presidential election. Marine Le Pen would be a strong candidate. Her biggest disadvantage is her surname.

Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon

The reserve is already standing by. Jordan Bardella, who comes from the suburbs of Paris, entered the Le Pen family through Marine’s niece, Nolwenn Olivier. The relationship lasted four years. In the meantime, Bardella became a well-known name. In April, Paris Match revealed that Bardella is in a relationship with Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies (22). The man from the Paris banlieue and his princess — a fairy tale. It may free Bardella from the “Le Pen stigma” that clung to Marine. But: last week the European Public Prosecutor’s Office announced from Luxembourg that it is also opening an investigation against Bardella over “misuse” of EU funds for media training. The timing is no coincidence.

The presidential election will be hard-fought, and especially so in the second round: “left versus right.” Excessive migration, cultural alienation, and collective impoverishment are the main themes. What threatens is a second-round result so razor-thin that the loser does not accept the outcome. Britain is a country of traditions; France is a country of revolution. The French political center has lost its legitimacy, and may reap a pitched battle in Paris.

Weimar Republic

And yet Germany is more worrying. Germans want to make everything todsicher — dead certain. Above all, no uncertainty. That is precisely what threatens. Germany is heading toward a situation resembling that of the Weimar Republic (1918–1933). That republic perished in chaos. The “political center” governing Germany (the Christian Democrats CDU/CSU, the Social Democrats SPD, and the liberal FDP) has shrunk sharply. The challenger is Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which draws its electoral support primarily in East Germany and is scoring ever better in West Germany. The AfD, like Farage and Le Pen/Bardella, makes migration its signature issue.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU) governs with the Social Democratic SPD. The liberal FDP did not return to the Bundestag because the party failed to clear the electoral threshold. Merz has ruled out the AfD and is dependent on the SPD, which obstructs stricter immigration policy and, above all, digs in its heels against socioeconomic austerity. In this way the SPD blocks Merz, who — by categorically excluding the AfD — has no alternative.

Voters Could Tear Down the “Firewall”

The AfD polls at 28%; the CDU/CSU sits at 23%; the SPD at 13%. The latter party, however, feels competition from the Greens (13%) and Die Linke (10%). It is caught in the splits: if the SPD moves too far toward the center, it loses voters to the Greens and Die Linke, but as soon as the CDU/CSU concedes too much to the SPD, the AfD grows across all of Germany. Merz is stuck fast, and his popularity rating has collapsed.

This autumn there are elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. There the AfD stands at 41%, the CDU at 26%, the SPD at 7%, and Die Linke at 12%. The 5% electoral threshold now works in favor of the radical newcomer and against the established parties. If the SPD ends up below 5%, it gets no seats, and the AfD — with the freed-up seats — could just barely obtain a majority. Then the voter tears down the “firewall,” the agreement among the established parties to exclude the AfD.

It could get even worse. The Bavarian CSU is, in the polls, only just above 5% at the national level. If this party — once led by the legendary Franz Josef Strauss — drops below 5% in Bundestag elections, it gets fewer seats and the CDU falls back to 17%.

At that point the system, with its corrective mechanisms, buckles under its own weight, because the electoral threshold works against the traditional parties. The extremes crowd out the center. Merz is powerless, locked in the SPD’s stranglehold. If the CDU does after all join forces with the AfD, it falls apart. The “social wing” of the CDU would then rise up in revolt. The liberal FDP cannot help, because it no longer clears the 5% electoral threshold. New elections will make the AfD bigger, while the CDU must go through a turbulent phase as it names a new chancellor candidate (Kanzlerkandidat).

Germany Is Adrift

In the corridors, the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst (50), has been warming up for some time now. He comes from the area around the German town of Bocholt, close to the Dutch border. The CDU must, of course, win elections, and the CSU must hold up, in order to be able to lead coalition formation in Berlin. But from Bavaria, minister-president Markus Söder (59) could put himself forward, with a right-wing profile, to keep the CSU above the 5% threshold.

In short: Merz no longer knows what, how, or where to. Germany is adrift.

Derk Jan Eppink is a Distinguished Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.

Blaming America First: Dangerous Waters Ahead

Blaming America First: Dangerous Waters Ahead

(This article was written by Peter Huessy and appeared in RealClearDefense. Blaming America First: Dangerous Waters Ahead)

When Ambassador Jean Kirkpatrick explained in 1984 that America’s severest foreign policy critics “always blame America first” she identified a narrative that continues some four decades later. At the time, there was often what appeared to be a reflexive anti-American bias in the criticism of President Reagan’s security policy. But critics had to sustain such a narrative as it enabled them to avoid a serious reflection on the security threats to the U.S., and wrongfully claim the threats were much of our own doing. Today, the false campaign to blame Israel for the Iranian conflict is a tragic repeat of what the Ambassador warned us to avoid.

Kirkpatrick knew the always blame America narrative was wrong and dangerous. With the dawn of the Reagan Presidency the United States faced major threats, all of which had grown significantly in the previous decade. Let’s review.

First was a reckless Soviet Union, often partnered with Communist China, engaging in major across-the-board arming of guerilla wars aimed at regime change. Although the Soviet conquest campaign centered in the third world started with the North Korean cross border invasion of 1950, it did not succeed. Thus, the switch to guerilla war in Indochina from 1959, Central America from 1958, and ironically culminating in the return to cross border invasion with Afghanistan in 1979.

Under Soviet direction, centers of state sponsorship of terrorism grew in Syria, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Iran, along with terror agents such as the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Hezbollah, the FMLN, FARC, the Red Brigades, and Bidar Meinhoff gangs.

And during the decade of détente, nearly two dozen American allied governments fell to or were attacked by communist subversion.

After the 1980 election, the U.S. turned the tables. The U.S. went after Soviet terror states in Afghanistan, Grenada and Nicaragua and worked to defeat terror proxies in Columbia and El Salvador, as part of an economic war on Moscow that aimed to make the cost of the Soviet empire unsustainable. And for the first time since 1917, the free world took back territory from the communist empire with the liberation of Grenada in 1983.

The second major threat President Reagan faced was a massive Soviet theater nuclear buildup, including the deployment of thousands of nuclear armed SS 20 medium range ballistic missile in Europe and Asia, targeting both the Atlantic and Pacific allies of the United States.

The third major threat President Reagan faced was a parallel Soviet nuclear buildup of deployed strategic nuclear weapons from a few thousand in 1972 to over 10,000 by the 1980s, all under the SALT treaties of 1972 and 1979.

Treaties that gave the good arms control housekeeping seal of approval to Moscow’s buildup that had as its key purpose to coercively blackmail the United States and our allies to stand down in the face of Soviet aggression.

Nuclear weapons were the umbrella under which Russian third world aggression would remain in a sanctuary.

Here is where we come back to Jean Kirkpatrick’s 1984 remarks. How did the United States reverse the Soviet buildup of nuclear weapons and end the Soviet empire, including reversing its third world campaign of subversion?

Kirkpatrick explained that too many critics of U.S. policy blamed the United States for Soviet aggression and nuclear building. We supported dictators in Nicaragua, Vietnam, and Cuba, so why was it a surprise guerilla campaigns emerged to change governments? The U.S. funded NATO on the doorsteps of the USSR so why should we be surprised Moscow responded with the deployment of SS-20 missiles?

When the USSR empire came crashing down, there were three common explanations.

One was that the Kennan policy of restrained “containment” practiced by nine successive American Presidents brought down the Soviets, but nothing special from the Reagan White House. The idea of containment of Soviet aggression was originated by State department official George Kennan who coined the term in a long telegram from Moscow and in a subsequent essay in Foreign Affairs signed by “X.”

But Kennan himself disliked the term containment and often declared it did not describe what Kennan had advocated after the end of World War II. He opposed Truman sending American troops to defend Korea, and repeatedly opposed most of Reagan’s security agenda, most particularly the administration’s nuclear and missile defense modernization agenda.

The second narrative was that the collapse of the Soviet empire was inevitable, and again nothing special from President Reagan had any serious effect on the outcome. Again, the common narrative was that nothing America did had much to do with the outcome of the Cold War.

The third narrative was much the same but with a twist. It was not America but the Soviets themselves that ended the Cold War. The reforms of General Secretary Gorbachev ended the Cold War, and all that Reagan did was as one recent President claimed was to allow those reforms to take place without trying to extend the Cold War. In fact, critics often complained the Soviet Union would have collapsed even faster if the United Stats had not been so aggressive.

Reagan’s political opponents held that his aggressive foreign policy harmed U.S. security, particularly with respect to describing the USSR as an “evil empire, developing SDI and deploying MX missiles, arming the Contras and Mujahadeen Northern Alliance while saving Solidarity. To the blame American firsters, our adversaries had to take defensive actions to protect their own security. It was America that was at fault—having caused the outbreak of the Cold War and perpetuated its continuance.

This acute tendency too, as the Ambassador explained, always blames America as the key ingredient to carrying out an alternative strategy. If the United States and it’s supposed aggressive security policy was responsible for triggering bad Soviet behavior, then of course the removal of such U.S. security policy and its architect (Reagan) would magically change Moscow security policy to one far more benign. In short, detente would work.

The pillars of former Vice President Mondale’s 1984 campaign were to stop SDI, freeze the deployment of America’s Pershing and GLCM missiles in Europe, kill the MX missile, and end all military aid to the contras in Nicaragua and the government of El Salvador.

Hear the ironies are too delicious to ignore. A frequent object of leftist or progressive scorn during the decade of the 1970s was Henry Kissinger, who was in fact the author of the SALT nuclear agreement, the ABM treaty that eliminated missile defenses, the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, and the entire edifice of the strategy of detente. All which President Reagan would seriously oppose.

But as Kirkpatrick pointed out, for the progressive left, if the origin of Soviet behavior was intrinsic to the very nature of Russian culture then of course a peaceful American security policy would be an invitation to the expansion of Soviet aggression, which is precisely what occurred during détente, from 1969 through the decade following.

In reality, when a dozen and a half nations slipped behind the Iron Curtain in little more than a decade, it hardly makes sense to then pretend at the end of the subsequent decade the USA and its allies abject failure to actually “contain” the Soviets led somehow to victory ending the USSR empire.

It is true that in 1980 after the invasion of Afghanistan the Carter administration announced that it had misinterpreted the Soviet embrace of detente and indeed had been mistaken by claiming the U.S. had to get rid of its inordinate fear of communism.

If simply changing U.S. foreign policy back to détente and restraint would induce a benign Soviet subsequent conciliatory security policy, then of course, progressive critics of President Reagan could justify their opposition to peace through strength, SDI, the full up modernization of American nuclear forces, the arming of the resistance in Nicaragua and Afghanistan, the take down of Grenada, and the arming of our nation state allies in El Salvador the Republic of Korea and NATO.

Similarly if today the turmoil in the Middle East was caused by America’s ally Israel, just as progressives assumed an aggressive USA policy caused the Cold War, then it’s simply a matter of preventing Israel from securing arms necessary to carry on its apparent too aggressive security policy. Stop Israel, stop the war. Peace blossoms!

Senator Sanders (I-Vt) thus can blame Israel for “genocide” in Gaza and pretend Hamas and Hezbollah are on the side of the angels. And consequently, Sanders can offer an amendment in the Senate to stop all USA arms sales to Israel, that received 40 votes, 39 of which were from the 45 member democratic caucus.

How simple Middle East security policy could be if we all simply “blamed Israel first” for “tricking” us into war against Iran. Like the make believe Cold War and the Soviet empire, ending the Iranian nuclear program, stopping the deployment of long range missiles, keeping open Hormuz, and ending proxy terrorism can be simply a matter of changing U.S. administrations.

We can all be for “peace,” need not take up arms against the genocidal regime in Tehran, because as critics claim, it is Israel and the USA that “chose this war” not an Iran that for nearly half a century has been at war with Western civilization.

Peter Huessy is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C. based foreign policy and defense think tank.

A Night of Intrigue — May 6, 2026

A Night of Intrigue - May 6th 2026 - Black Tie Monte Carlo at Barbouzard, Washington DC - The Gold Institute for International Strategy

A black-tie evening hosted by the Gold Institute for International Strategy at Barbouzard, Washington, D.C. Ambassadors and ministers from more than 50 countries joined Chairman Gen. Michael Flynn and President Eli Gold for an immersive Casino Royale–themed gathering.

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