Why “We the People” must become the new “establishment”

Years ago, Larry Schweikart used to tell people that he doesn’t “hold hands” over bad polling. His comments on X, then Twitter, were always filled with “what about that poll from (state)?” He got sick of it, warned people he would block them if all the concerns persisted, and now people finally understand that Larry doesn’t “do” polls. Thankfully, due to the utter trash that makes up modern polling, most people realize it, too.

Above, you can see some examples of what passes for polling these days. Those are snapshots of the Arizona Senate race from this exact week in 2024, showing some wild misses, including Marist’s. Marist yesterday did their “look at me” routine over Texas. Despite being critical of polling, I have a sober view of what elections may bring us this fall:

For some reason, people think because I’m critical of polling it must mean I think it will be a GOP wave this year. This couldn’t be more distant from the truth. I’ve been realistic about midterms for the past 18 months. The House is only competitive as far as a majority…

Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel), September 22, 2026

I am here to help candidates and campaigns win. I am in touch with one major U.S. Senate candidate on a nearly daily basis now over his race. I have produced serious analysis on the U.S. House races that will decide that chamber’s majority, and they have made their way all the way to the candidates and the top of the Republican Party. Still, I center my assessments on historical precedence and political reality, and don’t get caught up in all the noise and “red wave” cheerleading that defies reality.

The goal of a midterm with your party’s president in office is survival. Should Democrats win the House (or even the Senate) in November, many people will go off the ledge, thinking the MAGA movement is dead or giving up hope for the good fight of liberty. In reality, a Democrat majority will arguably do more to advance the MAGA agenda and strengthen the likely Vance/Rubio (or Rubio/Vance) ticket in 2028 than defying the odds and holding the House will. Imagine what they’ll do:

• Convene investigative panels and committees to go after Trump on personal issues, made-up financial affairs, and now, Iranian military action
• Impeach Trump multiple times, despite being unable to secure a conviction in the Senate
• Hold up all of Trump’s popular legislative ideas, which he will almost certainly lob at them just so they screw themselves

Stop worrying about impeachment and removal. If it didn’t happen after J6, it won’t happen. The effort to impeach Bill Clinton backfired on the Republican Party, and my guess is that Trump’s economy will boom in the last two years of his tenure, as it has already shown some signs of doing with expected Q3 growth. Aircraft carriers take a long time to turn around, and that is not something a society mired in instant gratification wants to hear.

Still, the question remains – can we fix this politically? Can America be set on a pathway to success, see evil-doers punished, be rid of political and institutional corruption using the political process? I tire of seeing anonymous wannabe revolutionaries online and have begun to clap back:

The problem with sentiments like this is that no one seems to want to provide an alternative plan. We are all stupid for participating in the political system. Yet they always fall just short of organizing or leading or calling for an overthrow of government. There are two…

Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel), September 22, 2026, replying to @magisterium17: “Politicians won’t help us resolve, fix, or improve anything. Cheerleading and focusing on the candidates in a corrupt election system is only perpetuating the lie. We have the illusion of choice.”

You only have two choices regarding America’s current issues: Fix the political process or commence the process of abolishing government that Thomas Jefferson detailed. For the written record, I do not endorse “the big ugly” that the latter point entails, and think people of good faith must first put shoulder to plow to fix the political process. Are we doing that? Let us examine together:

THREE SIGNS WE DON’T “GET IT”

I. Checked Out and Asleep at the Wheel

You and I “get it.” You read this newsletter because you have interest in American politics and presumably prefer the first option listed above, which is to engage in fixing American politics. 34,000 email addresses get this newsletter, and I am ranked in the Top 100 in the U.S. politics genre for paid subscriptions, which constitute less than 10% of my email list. There are precincts in Pima County, Arizona, that register more votes tallied in a presidential election than there are paid subscribers to my newsletter.

I have 85,000 followers on X. There are nearly that many Democrat presidential votes in Pinal County, Arizona, which Kamala Harris lost by 22.1%. The problem here is that we, the people who pay attention to this stuff, think everyone feels the same way or considers the same issues we fret over to be existential issues. It is a huge world out there, and my Dad always said, “10% of the people lead the way; 90% are just along for the ride.”

You may not realize it, but there are a lot of people who have no idea an election is even upon us. We are aware of this unfortunate fact (that people don’t realize an election is coming up) because we are busy as hell trying to win reelection in the Arizona House:

Living Through What We All Hate (Capt. Seth Keshel, September 21)

Let me explain why midterms usually hurt the president’s party in layman’s terms:

• Trump wins a tense, drama-filled election for all the marbles
• Trump’s voters are happy and come down from high alert
• Harris’s voters are filled with irrational hatred and insanity, and eat, sleep, and breathe politics and consider voting their own act of religious devotion to the cause
• Midterms come around and the Harris voters, joined by a few swing voters who vote on gas prices or other issues that have arisen since the previous presidential election, vote in high numbers
• Trump’s voters, asleep at the wheel and generally happy, turn out in smaller numbers – enough to upend the more narrowly held seats

Despite what you may read on X, which I use out of necessity and not personal enjoyment, Trump’s voters are happy. You can see it in the data outlining his approval within the Republican Party. The average Joe out there who showed up to vote because he was convinced our southern border imperiled America doesn’t sit around all day thinking about Iran, Israel, tariffs, or circuit judge nominations. We, the people who follow politics impulsively, are the ones who do that. We are going to vote. Average Joe “shut the border” Smith is busy running a business and watching his kids play sports, and it kills our momentum when the results come out.

II. The Real Elections are the Primaries in Most Races

Watching all of the Susan Collins drama unfold has helped shape my opinion on squishes more than anything. Yes, Collins is a squish. She is a 50/50 proposition at best when it comes to highly charged votes; however, she votes with President Trump on just about everything else, whereas a Democrat of any stripe from Maine would vote against practically everything. I’ve written about why mounting a primary campaign against her would be a mistake:

Primarying Susan Collins is a Mistake (Capt. Seth Keshel)

The greater issue within the Republican Party, therefore, is that we continue to nominate squishes for seats that are overwhelmingly red and would elect a brown paper bag if it had an (R) next to its name. We have a number of legislative districts in Arizona that are of this crimson stripe that are represented in the House and Senate by people who have no desire to bring about election integrity or to sling one word downrange in the ongoing culture wars.

Just this past week, I’ve written about Maria Elvira Salazar’s public contradiction of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operations. Salazar is sitting in a seat Trump won by almost 20 points, outside the margin of 2018 flips and an almost certain reelection victory for her even in a bad 2026 year. Clearly she is reading the fraudulent polling to come out and “step on it” as badly as she has, which has prompted people to ask me why we didn’t primary her. Well, that’s a good question:

Less than 1% of the population of FL-27 showed up to vote for her primary opponent in 2026. Roughly 4% of the population, or 1 in 25 people, showed up to renominate Salazar, who commands the massive dollars and the supposed security of incumbency. We’ve known for years she is a squish and an amnesty pusher, yet in this seat she won by over 20 points in 2024, no one with money, influence, and impact mounted a serious campaign to replace her in a seat a generic Republican should win even in a blue year (or would win back in the next normal year anyway, rendering the presumptive Democrat gain moot).

Do you want to know why the President often endorses crappy candidates like her? Because there is most often no viable alternative. When Republican voters start taking primary elections seriously, I will believe we are doing all we can to alter the current political crisis using the desired methods available to us.

III. Are We Truly Doing All We Can?

If I hear the term “silent majority” again, I’m going to puke. I’m so sick of hearing that term or being remotely associated with it. If you’re still silent, why? Why are you using an anonymous account? Why are you afraid of man? Most of you reading this are people of faith – we should only fear God.

It has never been more clear to me just how important Charlie Kirk was (and still is, in memory). We are talking about a guy with a brilliant mind and the gravitas to inspire young people to take an active role in Republican politics. I have spoken in front of many local groups over the years that have the same head count, same members, and same goals for every meeting. They are essentially social clubs for older Republicans rather than an outward-facing organization rebuffing the term “silent majority” altogether.

Elections are games of math. In a tossup race, both sides are going to have 45 percent. It’s what happens to the other 10 percent that decides how it all shakes out. If you need to get people who normally vote for the other side to vote for your side, how in the hell is that going to be done if the mantra is “I’m part of the silent majority, please don’t report me to H.R.?” Maricopa County remains ground zero for the 2020 election, yet less than half of all precinct committeeman spots are filled. Out of those that are filled, normally less than 10% of those committeemen actively engage voters in their precincts.

Are we truly leaving it all on the field?

SPIRIT WILLING, FLESH WEAK

Anyone can complain online all day. If this year’s midterms wind up being a true blue wave, including one that washes away the Senate, you can thank the online negativity chambers for depressing base turnout and discouraging those who truly care from engaging with the low propensity voters who come out for Trump, but whose votes we need in lower turnout elections and for ensuring good people are elected to local offices. If this article convicted you, then here are four things you can do to take action:

1. Volunteer to be a precinct committeeman/precinct captain, and get to work knowing voters in your precinct
2. Commit to recruiting good candidates for all races ahead of time, not when everyone is in a rush and at one another’s throats during primary season
3. If you’re a member of a Republican/conservative club, commit to bringing one person with you to the next meeting, and even paying for a year’s membership – political clubs cannot simply be “social clubs” for bored people
4. Stop worrying about annoying people; get your friends to commit to voting in the midterms, even if you think they will without being prompted

We don’t need to turn water into wine. We need to repeat basic fundamentals over and over again and grow an organization capable of winning elections and changing hearts and minds for the long run. After all, Benjamin Franklin warned us that we have a Republic only if we “can keep it.”

Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.