Examples from the developing data picture in Arizona
As we enter the final two weeks of the midterm stretch run, I’m taking another momentary pause from forecasts and predictions to give you a piece of great analytical importance. You may want to freshen up on my April 2025 article about the Latino coalition shift underway in the United States: How to Tell Democrats Know They’ve Lost the Hispanic Vote.
Most analysts, anticipating the dynamics of what is supposed to be a Democrat-favorable midterm year, are writing off the Latinos as a group that is going to be rushing back to Democrat roots, thereby jeopardizing key battlegrounds (like Texas statewide and any important House seats). I say, like Lee Corso – “not so fast!”
Nearly every state reporting early voting data shows the same pattern:
• Democrats rush out to a lead (we have party information in 30 states)
• Republicans tighten the lead, especially in states with robust in-person early voting
• Where possible (states with a sufficient voter registration advantage), Republicans take the lead in ballots returned and never relinquish it
Florida, at the time I’ve published this, sits at D+3.2% for total returns and in-person early voting. The vast interior of the state, overwhelmingly MAGA, isn’t fully open. Once it opens, the floodgates will release and Democrats will drown under the weight of the rapidly expanded GOP voter registration edge. Arizona is almost dead even for returns and running about 2 points stronger for the GOP than it was at this exact point in 2022. Before I go any further, let me explain why these dynamics persist:
• At first opportunity, whether in-person or by mail, the Trump Derangement Syndrome vote sounds off. This is their first opportunity to stick it to the man they wake up thinking about every day. These are considered 4/4 (voted in each of the past two primary and General Election cycles) Democrat base voters.
• Their reliable 4/4 minority voters likely get their votes banked.
• Republicans, more traditional and less reactive, take their time getting ballots in during a Democrat-favorable year, but nevertheless, the gap closes over time.
Therefore, in all of the white majority, overwhelmingly red Arizona counties, Republicans are still playing catch-up. In Maricopa County, Republicans are about to take the lead in returns, but are still running just behind even; however, they’ve won the last two ballot drops and should run ahead in the next day or two. In Yavapai County, which President Trump won by roughly 34 points, voter registration sits at R+33.6% (33.6% more Republicans registered than Democrats). Currently, Yavapai County sits at R+24.2% by returns:
Don’t worry, I’m not sounding alarm bells. Democrats led in returns less than a week ago, and have returned 40.6% of all ballots they were mailed. That means Yavapai’s Democrats, though vastly outnumbered, are driven by insane white liberals who consider it an act of religious devotion to vote against Trump. Republicans vastly outnumber them and are playing the long game. I call this split (R+24.2% in returns while being R+33.6% in registration) being currently left of registration.
Clearly, if Andy Biggs is going to be in position to upset Katie Hobbs, and the GOP ticket well positioned for success for other offices and retention of the legislature, they’ll want to be right of registration both statewide (R+6.5%) and in every county possible (especially Maricopa County and Pima – the latter of which will require depressed Democrat turnout).
Here is the first gold nugget for you this year:
YUMA COUNTY, ARIZONA
Yuma sits at R+5.3% by voter registration, but is already at R+6.4% by returns and climbing. Yuma is also roughly 67 percent Hispanic, and was one of the great success stories for Trump in 2024.
Yuma County, AZ
One of the early tells, in my opinion, the GOP is going to hold a lot of its Latino gains.
One of just 2 counties in AZ currently sitting right of registration by returns. It’s at R+6.4% in returns while registration is R+5.8%.
The other counties (minus one) …Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel), Oct 21, 2026
Presidential Results in Yuma County, Arizona
2016 Trump +1.1%, +560
2020 Trump +6.2%, +4,324
2024 Trump +20.4%, +13,922
These gains coincided with this in Texas:
They also coincided with massive Latino voter shifts to the right everywhere Latinos of all ancestries can be found – South Florida, Southern California, Northern New Jersey, and beyond.
Currently, people are concerned over Texas statewide races. If I’m right about this Yuma find, then there’s nothing to be concerned about – and Latinos are continuing to track to the political right. What was even more interesting was to observe Kari Lake’s 2022 gubernatorial margin. We all know there were plenty of problems with that 2022 campaign Katie Hobbs ran herself, but here was Lake’s margin in Yuma County in a midterm year:
2022 AZ Gov. – Yuma County, AZ
Lake +13.0%, +5,977
Lake, in an election with far fewer votes than a presidential, won Yuma County by 1,653 votes more than Trump did in the previous presidential election. This was a telltale sign Trump was going to kill it in Yuma in 2024, and beyond.
Time will tell if I’ve got this one right, but Yuma County stands apart from the other counties in Arizona, which are still trying to get right of registration. The only other county presently right of registration is Apache County, which is overwhelmingly Democrat and 70% Native American. I’d like to see more ballots in my sample, but it appears very likely the Democrat minority base is checked out of this midterm as part of a wider development in the long run.
You all need to get out and vote, and bring as many friends, family members, and fellow church members with you. I will continue to tell it like it is. For now, this assessment being correct means there will be no issue in holding Texas, and decisive House seats TX-34, FL-25, and CO-8 have much better odds for Republicans than previously thought. There may even be some surprises, like TX-28, that come into view.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
