You’ll always get lost if you only play the short game
You may remember a guest post from a few months ago by Ada Nestor.
Ada reviewed my book, The American War on Election Corruption, in her post. Let me tell you – she’s sharp as a tack and has a sense of perception second to none. Check out the piece she dropped yesterday in her newsletter, which I urge you to subscribe to:
“While You Were Watching a Lake Get Renamed“
Believe me, I’ve already heard all the second-guessing, hand-wringing, and rationalizing from so-called conservatives going on about changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America. Ada had this to say:
The same week, Lake Ontario became “Lake America.” A map with a name crossed out on Truth Social. An Oval Office signing. Canadian premiers issuing statements. Three straight news cycles arguing about whether a body of water can be renamed by executive fiat, and whether the Atlantic is next. I’ll believe the Atlantic panic when someone actually tries it.
I didn’t write a word about the lake. Not because it isn’t a story. Because I was watching two real ones.
She went on to talk about some actions President Trump took last week related to a national emergency over our power system. Give it a read and you’ll realize that she appreciates the same thing about the President that I’ve noticed for years now.
When President Trump is getting things done in a big way, he usually throws out a series of distractions for the press and Trump-deranged (often the same people) to choke on. That way, someone with an inside scoop to derail peace/trade/negotiation cannot gain the necessary leverage over people who would rather defend a communist or openly express their disdain over naming something to honor one’s own country.
Then, when the ink dries, you get something like this:
“Breaking News: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!”
President Trump pointed out that the United States now controls 65 billion barrels (65 thousand million) of Venezuela’s oil reserves – enough to supply the petroleum and oil needs of the United States (20.6 million barrels per day) for almost nine years.
Ada’s post compelled me to produce what I believe are the three most vital takeaways for Trump’s Venezuela oil deal, along with deeper explanations for each as to how they will benefit us, the people of the United States of America.
Without further ado:
I. Hindsight Remains Golden
I remember waking up on Saturday morning, January 3, to find out that U.S. force plucked Venezuela’s then-president Nicolas Maduro right out of his bed, then flew out without losing a single service member. I mean, they yanked him like you see with one of those hooks in a cartoon ripping someone off of a stage.
Another thing the Trump-deaf don’t get is how he refers to other people, like the interim president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez. She’s a member of Maduro’s party and, I’m confident, a pretty lousy person and even worse leader. Even so, she is referred to in writing by the most powerful man on Earth as “Highly Respected.”
Rodriguez and Trump almost certainly have the same thing in mind. She will do what he says, and if she doesn’t, she will wind up getting a free ride on the same aircraft that took Maduro on an unexpected red eye across the Western Hemisphere. As long as she says “yes sir” and we turn Venezuela into a resource-rich partner in our area of influence, she is great, wonderful, and “highly respected” – and most importantly, going nowhere.
This brings me to the question of Manifest Destiny. Few of us support these endless wars that have been popular for the past 60 years. This opposition got President Trump elected twice (three times, really), and right now we are watching the rest of the world pine for the United States to do the dying in Iran. I am confident there were larger plans in place months ago, but Europe is out, and no one in the Middle East has the resources to put men on the ground needed to topple a regime that manages, above all things, to survive.
But taking care of our own backyard is hardly a concept of endless wars or never-ending conflict. Trump’s success at practically zero cost to the United States will likely spur future like-minded administrations (including Trump’s own) to take action against other pariah states on our side of the map, such as Cuba. A Latin America with de facto alignment with an America First agenda is a powerful economic force against the powers of globalism and the emergence of other-than-friendly nations, like China.
II. Axis of Evil Hardest Hit
20% of the world’s crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a geographical feature which lends an otherwise backward nation like Iran a major advantage against other nations in the world economy.
The constant games played by the regime, which realizes the administration is too shrewd to be baited into a ground campaign, have caused major volatility in our markets and have kept energy and gas prices sky-high. This, naturally, has political consequences (enough to tip most of the 24 decisive House races, potentially) but also strategic ones.
Trump’s deal with Venezuela locks in a guaranteed source of oil at cost for 100 years, breaking our reliance on the Middle East and opening up our options when dealing with the perpetual conflict there. Additionally, Venezuela and Iran were critical pillars in China’s operation to conquer the world by mid-century.
Right on cue, American strikes on Kharg Island have commenced. With Venezuela realigned and Iran’s energy exports business up in flames (and global economic terrorism game upended), who takes the biggest hit?
III. American Quality of Life and Affordability
Everyone is hoping this pays off for 2026 midterms, typically by hoping gasoline prices plummet. This requires a nuanced understanding of the deal. Analysts believe Venezuela is only producing 1.2 million barrels of oil per day; however, Trump the builder knows this and with a renewed focus on polishing up this investment, will heavily invest in infrastructure.
Why?
Venezuela has more oil than anyone in the world, up to six times more than the United States. We produce almost 14 million barrels of crude oil per day. That’s chump change in Venezuela at full potential. It may take some time for the fruit of this deal to become obvious, but the future of American energy dominance is now sealed, and will result in oil being so abundant without reliance on tranquility in the Middle East that a dramatic drop in all energy costs, including the cost of transportation, will follow.
Conclusion
This arrangement with Venezuela is a direct result of strong leadership, saying enough of Maduro, and finding a total workaround of a bottleneck in the Middle East no one has wanted to touch for decades. It stands to benefit our country for generations and absolutely harms China’s ambitions with great impact.
Next time you see some crazy stuff going on in the news, you should always wonder what President Trump and team are up to behind the scenes.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
