Back From the U.K. Aerospace Expo – A Chance to Discuss Iran With Allies and “Anti-Allies”

I spent the past week in London during a period of resumed combat on Iran, the most intensive bombing since the start of Operation Epic Fury on 28Feb. So, I took the opportunity to ask Europeans, from PhD to cabbie, what they thought of the war in Iran. Here are the Cliff Notes – Appreciation for the USA increases in direct proportion to one’s near proximity to danger.

It was an important question, because I was trying to understand why our historic allies, who produce almost no oil or gas of their own, and who consequently have an indisputable vital national interest in the free-flow of oil thru the Strait of Hormuz, near universally refuse to help secure their interest. I was also trying to understand a related issue, why these same historic allies, who all have a vital national interest in a permanently non-nuclear Iran, an Iran which is also the granddaddy patron of modern, global Islamist terrorism (including terror attacks in Europe the very week I was asking these questions!), have so far refused to help secure that interest. Not acting in one’s interest is the essence of irrationality.

To be fair, a tiny fraction of those I queried were very supportive of US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Interestingly, when pressed further, ie “Then why are European nations not participating in attacks?”, the most common reply was a version of, “We can’t. Our military is no longer capable of such attacks.” Sad.

All of this reminded me of a hilarious article (titled “Amongst the Euroweenies”) written by P.J. O’Rouke in 1986 right after Libyan terrorists bombed the LaBelle discoteque in Gemany frequented by US soldiers. I was stationed in Germany at the time. Well, President Reagan responded by lauching cruise missiles into Mohamar Qadaffi’s tent. O’Rourke was in London at the time and was in turn endlessly castigated for simply being an American whose country bombed a Libyan dictator & sponsor of terror…and that became the basis for his article. As I found out last week, times haven’t changed much.

Except inside Iran itself. A recent secret survey of Iranian citizens, conducted by the regime’s Ministry of Intelligence, was just leaked to the West. It found that 64% of Iranian citizens are angry at the regime. That is the highest percentage, by far, of angry citizens of any nation on Earth. (Not only that, but if found that the practice of Shia Islam, the regime’s absolute foundation, has diminished greatly….In 1975, for example, the vast majority (79%) of Iranians fasted during Ramadan. That declined to 42% in 2023. Today that number is barely 30%.).

These are fascinating numbers, so I did a little more research. I found a similar survey conducted by a Dutch group in September (right before the uprising began) that reached similar conclusions. Moreover, it showed the nation with the highest favorability (by far) amongst Iranians is the USA! The USA also had the lowest unfavorability rate of all nations, by far.

We discussed all of this on the show this week, as well as an assessment of the current situation on the ground in Iran, the potential for a popular uprising, the necessity of toppling the regime, and the lack of serious help from our historic allies. My guest was an old friend, terrorism & national security expert, Dan Diker, PhD. Today he serves as the president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. Few, if any, understands the threat as well as Dan. Click on the link to hear our discussion: https://frontlinesoffreedom.com/show-970/