Jon Husted (R-inc.) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
I. The Race
Jon Husted (Republican) is serving out the Senate term won by Vice President JD Vance in 2022, and under Ohio law is required to stand for this special election for the completion of the term. Before serving in the Senate, Husted was Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor.
Sherrod Brown (Democrat) is looking to make his way back to the Senate after having won three terms there (2006, 2012, 2018) before losing to Senator Bernie Moreno in 2024, when President Trump carried the state by 11.2%. If Brown wins, he will have to run again in 2028.
II. State Profile
Ohio was once the premier bellwether state in presidential politics. From 1896 through 2016, Ohio failed to vote for the winner of the presidency only twice – in 1944 and 1960. We all know the 2020 election had its issues, but I tend to believe Ohio would have stuck with its record as an accurate predictor in a fair race.
Kamala Harris won 6 of 88 counties in Ohio’s 2024 presidential elections. Only five of them have meaningful vote counts:
• Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
• Franklin County (Columbus)
• Hamilton County (Cincinnati)
• Lucas County (Toledo)
• Summit County (Akron)
Contrast the above results with how the map looked in 2008:
The interior of Ohio, while won by McCain, was mostly just pink. Key Trump-backing counties in the northeast, such as Mahoning County, were still plenty blue. Despite being a two-time Obama state, Trump had no trouble carrying the Buckeye State all three times he ran:
2016 Trump +8.1%
2020 Trump +8.0%
2024 Trump +11.2%
The key to understanding Ohio in 2026 is to first recognize it is nothing like the state Brown first won election to the Senate in back in 2006.
Key Statistics
• 69.3% White, 15.5% Black, 8.5% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors give Brown better than two-to-one odds to unseat Husted and return to the Senate.
IV. History
The seat Brown currently seeks has been in Republican hands since 1998, when George Voinovich won the seat and held it for two terms. He gave way to Rob Portman, who won it in 2010 and 2016 before stepping away for Vance:
It is important to note that Vance, running for an open seat, prevailed over Tim Ryan – who once had impeccable blue collar Democrat credentials that far surpass those Brown seeks to impute to himself.
Brown held the other Ohio Senate seat for three terms after knocking off none other than Mike DeWine, Ohio’s current Republican governor and resident Trump hater in the mold of John Kasich, in 2006. He was reelected in 2012, and again in 2018 with a high turnout:
Those bullish on Brown’s chances today will point to a swing of 14.9% away from the 2016 presidential margin to Brown in 2018, but Ohio is much different today than it was even then and has gone more the way of Indiana than it has remained in the mold of “Trumplican” states like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Just in the map above, it will be difficult for Brown to carry northeastern counties and avoid the crimson-shaded margins of the interior his opponent is likely to pile up.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Husted ran unopposed in his primary to secure the GOP nomination. Brown faced a primary challenger, but ran over him like Ohio State would a MAC squad in September:
VI. Polls
Despite Husted having led in several recent polls, pro-Brown pollsters (some disreputable) have flooded the zone and given him an average lead of 2.6% in the RCP file:
VII. Media Ratings
It doesn’t appear to me that any of the reviewing bodies are buying the polling and have all chosen the safety of the “toss-up” rating.
VIII. Voter Registration by Party
Ohio does not register voters by party. It closely resembles Pennsylvania, which does register by party and has a strong rightward trend for more than a decade.
IX. Election Considerations
Here is what I had to say in my write-up of the greatest unforced error in the race for the majority, OH-7:
Fortunately for Miller, Ohio has done a relatively strong job of sealing up election loopholes and has ensured they have control over the limited mail-in balloting that exists in the Buckeye State. I wrote up Ohio’s election details in the aftermath of the 2024 election for those of you interested in understanding how election integrity impacts races there. In short, there will be no late night ballot dumps impacting this race.
Industrial Midwest – 2024 Election Compendium
X. Summary and Election Estimate
Ohio has had a solid decade to marinate in its new Republican orientation. This means the interior counties are much more crimson-shaded than they once were, establishing a higher presidential baseline for Brown, no longer the incumbent, to overcome. Democrats, as they struggle in other states, require overwhelming margins in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties to stand a chance in statewide races now that the white working class has shifted to Trump’s GOP. And therein lies the problem for Brown.
I keep a daily tracker assessing Ohio’s turnout each day for mail returns and in-person early voting. I then sort it by percentage of the 2024 presidential vote already cast. Franklin and Cuyahoga, which are presumably front-loading Democrat-heavy early votes, languish well into the bottom half of 88 counties sorted by this measure; until just a few days ago, Montgomery County (Dayton) was dead last.
MAGA counties dominate the list of counties sorted by 2024 presidential vote county already cast in this state that has a massive in-person on Election Day voting propensity. If Brown isn’t going to cash in massive margins in Cuyahoga County, where the City of Cleveland itself is lagging big-time, and the crazies in Columbus (Franklin County) aren’t into the election, then where in the hell is he going to get his votes from?
The above graphic shows implied partisan turnout through yesterday using primary voting history. It stands at just D+5.2%, which is redder at this point in time than 2024, when Trump won by +11.2%. Election Day in Ohio is overwhelmingly red, and if Cleveland and Columbus are dragging heavily on turnout, the incumbent Husted has a major edge.
The decision matrix narrowly favors Brown:
Yet the political makeup of modern-day Ohio and the turnout patterns in early voting place Brown at a major disadvantage despite his name recognition and prior success with Trump in the White House.
Forecast for OH Senate
If Ohio red counties do what they do on Election Day, voters remain old, and urban turnout stays in the toilet, this race is Husted’s – and potentially with some breathing room to spare. Brown’s ceiling at this point is very low.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
