Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-inc.) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)
I. The Race
Thomas Kean, Jr. (Republican), son of the former New Jersey governor of the same name, is running for his third term in the U.S. House. He earned his first win in 2022, knocking out Tom Malinowski, before winning reelection in 2024 by +5.4% as President Trump ran strong in New Jersey. His campaign is clouded by concerns over transparency and fitness for office.
Rebecca Bennett (Democrat) is a veteran with a background in healthcare, and she has focused her campaign on exactly that – one of the few issues Democrats poll ahead of Republicans on.
II. District Geography
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District (NJ-7) is a large district in the northwestern corner of the state. It holds all of Hunterdon and Warren Counties, and segments of Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties. The boundaries of the district were altered after the 2022 election, making NJ-7 slightly more Republican than it had been previously. Bridgewater Township (population 46,000) is the largest place in the district; Kean is from Westfield, Union County (population 31,000).
This district covers almost the entirety of northern New Jersey from west to east, and has a suburban nature to it given its proximity to New York City. It has trended away from President Trump since he won a +6 margin in 2016, despite a nice recovery in 2024.
Presidential Margins
2016 Trump +6
2020 Biden +4
2024 Trump +2
Key Statistics
70.8% White, 12.2% Hispanic, 8.3% Asian
85.8% Urban, 14.2% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors are acting like Kean isn’t even a two-term incumbent, and consider Bennett an overwhelming favorite to flip the seat.
IV. History
NJ-7 hasn’t changed much over the past two decades, which makes it easy to analyze. Leonard Lance (GOP) took office in 2009, and carried his seat by +11.0% in 2016, with Donald Trump winning the district by six points. With suburban seats in 2016, a notable presidential underperformance from the Congressman’s margin was a telltale sign trouble was on the horizon in 2018. Sure enough, Lance was ousted by Tom Malinowski, whom Kean eventually put out of work himself.
Here is the swing in the old NJ-7 from 2016-18:
Malinowski blew past the presidential margin by 11 points, and Lance’s incumbent House margin by 16. Kean, then a state Senator, challenged Malinowski in 2020 and came up just short (-1.2%). By 2022, the seat had been drawn more favorably for the GOP and Kean won a rematch, topping Malinowski by 2.8%. He then held NJ-7 in 2024, this time with a nice margin of +5.4%:
In essence, the district is very competitive and is neither rural nor overly urbanized. It appears to swing dramatically based on who the president is, as what was then NJ-7 swung 16 points against Trump and then the newly drawn NJ-7, containing most of the original turf, blew back another 10.4% against Biden between 2018 and 2024. That isn’t a good sign for 2026 for the new incumbent.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Kean, despite a lengthy absence from the House floor ahead of the primary, ran unopposed in the GOP primary. Bennett had to beat three other Democrats, and she did so with ease:
Being held short of a majority hasn’t hurt her, and there are no reports of lingering drama in the Democrat camp. 2026 primaries appear to be a non-factor in the forthcoming Kean vs. Bennett matchup.
VI. Polls
These polls came from The New York Times:
Bennett’s primary opponents’ polling found her (Bennett) up 4 over Kean, while a more recent poll by StimSight Research has her up 5.
Average: Bennett +4.5%
VII. Media Ratings
Inside Elections is the most favorable toward Kean, having it only “tilt” Democrat (generally less than 2 points). The others are far more confident Bennett will flip the seat.
VIII. Party Registration
Republicans have lost almost 20% of their registration advantage since November 2024; both parties have been gaining registration, but Democrats are adding them at a superior rate (+7,036 D to +3,355 R) of over 2 to 1. The Republicans had a registration advantage of R+2.7% in 2022, when Kean won by 2.8%, and clearly he overran the registration index by 2.3% in 2024; Bennett has to like what she sees with the advantage diminishing and independents expected to stick to that grain next month.
IX. Election Considerations
New Jersey’s election laws make up a mixed bag. On some counts, they have an apocalyptic environment marred by Automatic Voter Registration. I wrote up the deeper meaning of the exposure of 6,600 non-citizens on the voter rolls this summer, and there is little doubt things are far worse than we are told.
Therefore, it can be reasonably baked into any race in New Jersey that the voter rolls are full of people who shouldn’t be on them. The state also lacks Voter ID, and has way too many mail-in ballots floating around in a given election than they did a decade ago. They do have tough laws against ballot harvesting, and I even wrote about them in my book.
Mikie Sherrill’s bloated margin from 2025’s off-year gubernatorial election strongly suggests people are still ballot harvesting extensively in New Jersey, as she blew past the vote total of her opponent, who himself blew past the 2021 vote total of the Democrat victor, Phil Murphy.
New Jersey runs lousy elections, when they need to.
X. Summary and Election Estimate
These are the primary factors that will decide this race:
NJ-7 is a volatile seat for midterm adjustments. Not only did it swing against the presidential margin by 11 points in 2018, it ran 16 points against its sitting representative who had held the seat for five terms. Rest assured it won’t have greater affinity for Kean than it did for Lance. The GOP lost four seats in the Garden State in 2018, and despite positive mail voting splits available in most places, they’re not so rosy in New Jersey (although it is too early to pass serious judgment).
Despite Republicans having made gains in New Jersey registration overall since 2024, NJ-7 has slipped nearly 4,000 registrations to the left.
Finally, Bennett and Democrats are hitting Kean where it counts:
In one of the strangest political stories of the year, Kean disappeared into thin air in early March, and reemerged at the end of June after having spent months dodging reporters and not campaigning for his uncontested primary. He missed 140 roll call votes, and when pressed, none of his GOP colleagues had any answers.
The official explanation was “depression.” Whether this is the truth or not, it couldn’t have come at a more inopportune time or been handled any worse in a critical year in which he still has a strong enough voter registration advantage to possibly hold the seat. Democrats have been advertising the missed work and painting Kean as a comfortable bureaucrat unaccountable to the people, and it seems to be working.
Here is how the key factors in this race stack up:
Forecast for NJ-7 House
Despite having way more money than Bennett, Kean is a serious underdog in his seat thanks to factors both in and out of his control. He’s currently saddled with a 60% disapproval rating, and it appears voters aren’t buying his explanation for his absence this year. Bennett has no political experience and is winging that as a positive, giving her an “outsider” label she can ride to what is likely to be a fairly comfortable win next month. If that win happens, the GOP will hold just two of New Jersey’s 12 House seats.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
