This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in WNL. Midterms: Trump-bashen of je deugt niet.
With the American midterms on the menu, “commentating Netherlands” is settling in for the show. Viewers expect a range of opinions, as befits a public broadcaster, but are treated to the one uniform opinion: “Democrats must win; Republicans are crazy; Trump is a criminal.” Whoever does not share this subtle analysis is not decent either.
The Dutch debate about America has nothing to do with America, and everything to do with the Netherlands. Your opinion of America, let alone of Trump, determines where you stand and whether you are decent, and if you are not, you deserve to be met with silence. Behold the “democratic debate.”
In 2008 I lived in New York and decided to become a “Republican watcher.” A niche and at the same time lonely profession, but for me a world opened up in the “other America.” I attended the conventions in the presidential election, both the Democrats’ in Denver and the Republicans’ in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
The NOS was in Denver with a sizable delegation in rented caravans. For Barack Obama was the anointed one, awaiting canonization. At the Republicans’ convention there was a single NOS radio journalist, who left early because of a flood elsewhere.
On stage, Sarah Palin was launched as the vice-presidential candidate, and the media immediately banished her. But she voiced something that was widely felt in non-urban America, and on which the later candidate Donald Trump built: the gap between voters and Washington, DC.
In 2015 Trump launched his campaign and was immediately declared “crazy.” In Washington everyone laughed at him; the fool of the day. At his first campaign appearance, in August 2015, he flew his plane (lettered: TRUMP) over a football stadium with 30,000 people in Mobile, Alabama.
I thought: “Something is happening here, this is an American ‘Pim moment,’” and wrote in De Volkskrant (September 2, 2015): “Can Trump ultimately win? Yes he can.” The editors printed it, probably shaking their heads.
A year later, on a street in New York (coincidences do happen), I ran into Bret Stephens, head of the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal. I knew him from my Brussels days as head of The Wall Street Journal Europe. He invited me to lunch. I told him Trump stood a real chance, given those reactions in the stadium. A kind of “Pim effect.”
He knew who Pim Fortuyn was and suddenly became very angry. “Trump cannot win, not a single chance: zero!” But Trump won. Stephens traded the Wall Street Journal for the New York Times. Pollsters, too, believed Trump mathematically could not win, but politics is not mathematics. The Dutch television panels were shrouded in tears that election night.
The coming midterms are Trump’s last and most difficult. That he is a narcissist everyone knows (TikTok prime minister Jetten is one too): for many politicians, narcissism is in fact an inexhaustible source of energy. Compared with Europe, America has a strong economy; a liter of gasoline costs about 2.65 euros in the Netherlands (half of it tax), and 0.90 euros in America. Trump plays the lead role in world politics and relies on a loyal MAGA base at home.
In midterm elections turnout is usually low: the main task is getting your own supporters to the ballot box. At the same time, the Democrats have radicalized to the left and in some states are fielding candidates who are too radical even for an average Democrat. Dutch journalists often take their cues from CNN, but that is a “mini-channel” compared with the conservative FOX News. Then there is the Trump factor: he is campaigning in all the swing states, for every vote.
Everything is close. Republicans are often “under-polled,” as the 2024 presidential election showed once again; they distrust pollsters. The Republicans have a reasonable chance of keeping the Senate; the House of Representatives is neck and neck.
It will be nail-biting at the Dutch television panels. Will it be a bonfire of joy or (once again) a vale of tears?
