Greg Abbott (R-inc.) vs. Gina Hinojosa
I. The Race
Greg Abbott (Republican) seeks his fourth term as Texas governor, the office he was elected to in 2014. Prior to that, he served as Texas Attorney General for almost the entirety of Rick Perry’s tenure as governor.
Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) is a union lawyer and sitting member of the Texas House of Representatives. She was first elected to that chamber, and seeks to become the first Democrat to win the governorship since Ann Richards did so in 1990.
II. State Profile
The overwhelming theme of all 2026 analysis of Texas should be the same – if all of that red votes, then Texas will be red. The struggle with all of the work put into that endeavor so far ties directly to the fact that Texas has open primaries and does not register voters by party, whereas Florida closes primaries and does have party registration. We can watch it live as every vote comes in and know definitively in which direction the electorate is headed.
Texas’s presidential baseline is perhaps more imposing to Democrats’ long-term hopes than any before it, even those elections George W. Bush won by more than Trump’s +13.7% margin in 2024. The bedrock of that victory was a historic performance with Latino voters – 55% of them backed Trump:
While some of its urban counties, especially Dallas and Travis, have gone the way of their counterparts in the past 20 years (mega-blue), Harris (which contains Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) have large working-class populations which have kept the county margins from getting out of control against Republicans. The rural areas of Texas are overwhelmingly Republican, and even more so now that rural South Texas has lurched in the same direction.
Democrats must have low Republican turnout, large swings in a small handful of counties, and overwhelming turnout in four blue bubbles (Harris, Bexar, Travis, Dallas Counties) to win a statewide election in Texas – something they haven’t done since 1994.
2026, thanks to its place on the calendar and in the electoral cycles, gives them their best shot in years to do just that, and they mostly have their eyes set on the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, which I will profile after the end of in-person early voting.
Presidential Margins
• 2016 Trump +9.0%
• 2020 Trump +5.6%
• 2024 Trump +13.7%
Key Statistics
• 40.2% Hispanic, 39.3% White, 11.6% Black, 5.1% Asian
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors find Abbott the favorite, but by far lower odds than they would have in any of his three runs had these platforms been widely used in the past.
IV. History
In 1978, Republican Bill Clements rode a midterm wave to become the first Republican governor of Texas since Reconstruction. What followed behind him throughout Texas was a windfall very much like the one observers have seen materialize in Florida under Ron DeSantis. In 1980, Ronald Reagan flipped Texas’s electoral votes, thus beginning a streak of 12 consecutive Republican presidential wins remaining intact to this day.
Clements was unseated in 1982, but won the office back in 1987 and served another term. Democrat Ann Richards became the last from her party to serve as Texas governor when she won it in 1990 against human gaffe machine Clayton Williams, whose undisciplined commentary and antics cost him the race. Richards, in hindsight, is more conservative than most governors who call themselves Republican today; however, the partisan realignment caught up to her in 1994 and she was ousted by our future 43rd president, George W. Bush. As indicated above, 1994 was also the last year Democrats carried any statewide offices.
Thus began the stretch of GOP dominance in the governor’s mansion that remains intact today.
Bush won reelection in an absolute massacre in 1998 that is as red as Trump’s 2024 map:
He then won the presidency and handed the office off to Rick Perry, who was then serving as Lieutenant Governor (elected in 1998, first Republican in position since Reconstruction). Perry won the office in 2002 and was reelected in 2006 and 2010. Abbott, if reelected, will pass Perry as longest-tenured Texas governor provided he serves out the entirety of his fourth term.
Abbott swept into office in the 2014 midterm wave, and believe it or not, there was plenty of tough talk about turning Texas blue back then. The Democrats ran a state legislator named Wendy Davis, who earned the nickname “Abortion Barbie” for her looks and views on infanticide. Here is how it worked out for her:
With Trump in office, Texas faced a strong Democrat tailwind for the first time in many years. Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke challenged Ted Cruz for his U.S. Senate seat, and gave him a hell of a run – even exceeding Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential vote count. Abbott faced a weak opponent, former Dallas sheriff Lupe Valdez, and beat her by a margin of +13.3%.
Abbott’s most recent reelection came against O’Rourke in 2022, who ran with faded star power and in the wrong cycle to attempt an upset:
The 10.9% margin of victory was Abbott’s lowest yet, but there was very little expectation that Texas was in play and no one was overly invested in making sure the pedal was slammed to the floorboard like they are today in pursuit of turnout. Trump cleared Abbott’s vote count by more than two million just two years later.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Abbott faced a primary in 2026, but wound up beating Pete Chambers by over 70 points. Despite the frustration of grassroots Republicans with some of his policies responsible for transforming DFW and Central Texas into unrecognizable messes, the requirement to defeat Democrats will ensure he carries practically every rank-and-file GOP vote.
Hinojosa made her way through a weak primary field, and won convincingly:
VI. Polls
RCP shows Abbott’s polling average at +3.4%, with almost none willing to put him over a majority of the vote. This is a bit strange considering he’s never won less than 54.9% while running for governor.
This also happens to be the time of year when polls magically show a burst in support for Republicans in Texas, but I’m not so sure that is coming soon given the importance of the Senate race to the national propaganda narrative.
VII. Media Ratings
Only three reviewers have a hat in the ring in this race, and they all “lean” for Abbott – taking the cautious route.
VIII. Party Registration
Texas does not register voters by party, but it has become painfully obvious to many that they absolutely should. I am in full support as an analyst because I’m sick of being gaslit by flawed primary participation models.
IX. Election Considerations
Rather than reinvent the wheel, I’m relaying what I wrote in my assessment of the decisive House race, TX-34:
Texas, being such a huge state with an overwhelmingly urban and suburban population, has people rung up on election corruption charges all the time – including in South Texas.
Still, Texas has strong control over what few mail-in ballots are sent out, and the risk for widespread corruption in this race (relative to others I’ve profiled) is low.
X. Summary and Election Estimate
I am going to start off by saying that one of the things I most look forward to about this cycle concluding is that it will be another two years until I have to watch Texas politicians go on news television or podcasts, spin up giant crocodile tears, and tell the audience that this is the time Texas is turning blue.
No blue states have politicians that act like that, even in states that are turning red. All of my figures, as I presented consistently in 2024, showed that Trump was going to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, which all had either Democrat governors (not Nevada) or significant Democrat political power in the state. You know why? Because saying crap like that makes sure your enemy keeps the turnout surge going and beats you.
I’ve heard it over and over – “if all the votes currently in were counted, we would lose!” Yea, and if we stopped the game after the road team scored a run in the top of the first, the home team would lose, too. So, I have a compromise. How about we put the next 4 million or more votes in the ballot box, and then count?
History suggests strongly that Abbott will be reelected, and so does this handy, dandy graphic:
New transplants to Texas, if you believe this graphic (and I do), are R+20 by implied partisanship. They are to the right of the existing electorate, which hasn’t elected a Democrat in a statewide race since 1994. These people, hundreds of thousands between every election cycle, did not move to Texas just to see it turn blue, and I can assure you they are the highest propensity GOP voters you will find. They are all going to vote, and will vote for Abbott and Paxton 1:1, along with Bo French and all other GOP candidates on the ballot.
Now they are turning out, even in the assessments of the left-wing modelers who want to wish-cast blue Texas into existence. It is imperative that every Republican turns out to vote. While I am confident in Abbott’s reelection, I have no doubt (as proven by Cruz underperforming Abbott by 10.7% in 2018) he will run ahead of Paxton. Abbott needs to win in a blowout, preferably north of ten points. Another positive sign is that Andy Beshear, head of the Democratic Governors Association, won’t throw serious money at Hinojosa’s effort to oust Abbott.
It seems like they know the polls are off, which is good news for Paxton, too.
Abbott is trouncing Hinojosa financially, and leads every applicable category in my decision matrix:
Forecast for TX Governor
Texas Republican governors, like those in Georgia, have a longer leash because the suburbanites willing to stab the party in the back down ballot don’t really want someone running the state to increase taxes and turn it into failed states they see in the news. It is possible that Abbott, running for a fourth term, may post his lowest margin yet if turnout is through the roof – but that same high turnout will ensure enough red on the map votes to keep him in there. Abbott has also done well with Hispanic voters and stands to benefit from the massive realignment in that demographic pulled off by President Trump.
Abbott needs to win big, and that will help everyone relax over the Senate race. If everything falls into place, given Hinojosa’s lack of appeal, a 2018 margin isn’t out of the question.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
