10 House races on the bubble that shouldn’t be overlooked
Note: These quick estimates are for House races rumored to be in play or that may have simply slipped through the cracks over a long stretch of forecasting races.
I have now completed individual assessments for the 24 races I consider decisive in 2024. That is to say they are the most likely seats that will determine the winner of the coming majority. Still, with so many races, 435 in all, upsets can happen. Here is how I see the races in these 10 seats I think are on the bubble:
CO-4
Boebert (R-inc.) vs. Laubacher (D)
• Party registration has slipped left from 2024, but is still R+18.3% in a district covering rural eastern Colorado
• Laubacher is flush with cash and running in a state with Universal Mail-In Voting, which gives her a chance to sneak up
RATING
75/25 Boebert (R) – too rural and too red
FL-14
Beltran (R) vs. Castor (D-inc.)
• GOP leads party registration by more than 9 points in seat redrawn to push Castor out of Congress
• Early voting not as impressive in Florida as hoped for, leaving Castor some optimism as a well-known incumbent
RATING
60/40 Beltran (R) – Florida Republicans have all the momentum, and I feel good about their odds of flipping the toughest seat, FL-25. That means they should get FL-14, too.
FL-22
Askar (R) vs. Dandiya (D)
• FL-22 is redrawn and includes a heavy Republican vote from Collier County and moderate portions of Palm Beach and Broward County; district is more than 8 points in favor of GOP by registration
• Dandiya’s hopes rest on low turnout on Election Day for GOP
RATING
65/35 Askar (R) – Askar has a big financial edge and isn’t facing the incumbent.
IA-2
Mitchell (R) vs. James (D)
• This seat came open due to Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate
• Republicans have added to their voter registration lead in this Trump +10 seat since November 2024
RATING
65/35 Mitchell (R) – I have Democrats favored in IA-1 and IA-3, but IA-2 is a bridge too far as Democrats have collapsed after a fast start in early voting.
NH-1
DiLorenzo (R) vs. Shaheen (D)
• Seat open for new representative thanks to Pappas running for U.S. Senate
• Daughter of Senator Shaheen is Democrat nominee and will benefit from mother’s political network, but DiLorenzo has the funds to make this race interesting
RATING
65/35 Shaheen (D) – New Hampshire likes to favor the out-party, especially when Republicans are in the White House. Shaheen’s name recognition will likely carry her across.
OH-1
Conroy (R) vs. Landsman (D-inc.)
• Ohio legislature didn’t cut deep enough into the new OH-1 boundaries, otherwise they could have guaranteed a flip
• Landsman is a tough incumbent in a district Trump won narrowly; he is not invincible, because urban turnout is terrible in Ohio – including in Cincinnati (the heart of the district)
RATING
60/40 Landsman (D) – Landsman would have a considerably higher rating if Cincinnati turnout wasn’t poor heading into Election Day.
PA-1
Fitzpatrick (R-inc.) vs. Harvie (D)
• Fitzpatrick is one of few Republicans in the House representing a district Trump lost
• Fitzpatrick’s +12.8% margin in 2024 should hold up, given his perception as a moderate in a very suburban district
RATING
70/30 Fitzpatrick (R) – His margin will likely shrink, but Fitzpatrick will work the district like Susan Collins works Maine to get by.
TX-15
De La Cruz (R-inc.) vs. Pulido (D)
• Fundamentally, the race belongs to De La Cruz, who is running in a newly redrawn Trump +17.8% district in far south Texas; however, her opponent is a popular musician who polls well that has everyone worried about the seat
• I suspect Republicans will hold onto a lot of Trump’s Latino gains, and the redness of the district will carry her across; still, if there is a trick shot to be played this year, it’s for Democrats in this seat with their unique candidate
RATING
60/40 De La Cruz (R) – The new boundaries include some seriously red terrain full of Latinos that have been voting Republican for a long time.
TX-28
Cuellar (D-inc.) vs. Tijerina (R)
• After a pardon, Trump probably thought Cuellar would switch parties; Cuellar has been tough on the border (for a Democrat) and is one of the few remaining “blue dogs” in the House after two decades in Congress
• Tijerina is the one who switched parties for this race; the Webb County Judge signed up for the newly redrawn Trump +10.4% district that includes Laredo/Webb County and several other surrounding counties
• Cuellar has the edge here, but if Eric Flores can win TX-34 convincingly, it’s a sign the Latino realignment is still on and that he (Cuellar) could be in for a tight race
RATING
70/30 Cuellar (D) – Tijerina seems like a strong candidate for a more promising (presidential) cycle; this seat was redrawn with a future GOP flip in mind.
VA-1
Wittman (R-inc.) vs. Taylor (D)
• Wittman’s seat fits the mold for a danger seat, given that he significantly outran Trump in 2024 and that Virginia’s electorate is likely to trend bluer relative to the rest of the nation over federal cuts
• Turnout in VA-1 is high, which should favor Wittman, who has nearly two decades of Congressional experience; the negative trends in Virginia of late sour this race, which would have been a no-doubter in most cycles
RATING
60/40 Wittman (R) – High turnout, name recognition, and experience carry Wittman – but narrowly.
On Tuesday morning, my entire House map drops right here on Captain K’s Corner.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
